Thursday, July 30, 2015

Supreme Court of Westeros, ruling 88


Thursday is court day!
Welcome to the Supreme Court of Westeros! Every week, three pressing questions from the community will be answered by the esteemed judges Stefan (from your very own Nerdstream Era) and Amin (from A Podcast of Ice and Fire). The rules are simple: we take three questions, and one of us writes a measured analysis. The other one writes a shorter opinion, either concurring or dissenting. The catch is that every week a third judge from the fandom will join us and also write a dissenting or concurring opinion. So if you think you're up to the task - write us an email to stefan_sasse@gmx.de, leave a comment in the post, ask in the APOIAF-forum or contact Amin at his tumblr. Discussion is by no means limited to the court itself, though - feel free to discuss our rulings in the commentary section and ask your own questions through the channels above.
One word on spoilers: we assume that you read all the books, including the Hedge Knight short stories, and watched the current TV episodes. We don't include the spoiler chapters from various sources in the discussion, with the notable exception of Theon I, which was supposed to be in "A Dance with Dragons" anyway.
Casting Call: We need more judges! If you are interest in being judge, even if you have been already, please write us. 
And now, up to ruling 88! Our guest judge this week is Dom Tartaglia, a PhD student at Indiana University in the Department of Folklore and Ethnomusicology. He studies traditional foods and digital folklore, and in his free time he reads tinfoil theories on r/ASIOAF.

What will happen in Riverrun in the near future?

Main Opinion: Amin
It looks like there may be a Frey-Lannister wedding there, which the Brotherhood could ambush. Although it might make just as much or more sense to have that wedding at the Twins or in the West, the way things are going in Riverrun, with a Brotherhood spy in place and increasing activity around the area suggests that something big is going to go down there. It is also still a key strategic target and stronghold that would be difficult to recapture without a fully mustered army in the area.

Concurring in part, dissenting in part: Dom Tartaglia
While I agree the Brotherhood’s ambush of the Frey Lannister wedding is happening, that’s only the tip of the iceberg. The smallfolk of the Riverlands are slowly but surely lighting nightfires for R’hllor; Riverrun might be the epicenter of a religious movement. And, if the Crown has to put down the Brotherhood at Riverrun post wedding, might they send Robert Strong? Might Brienne still have Sandor’s helm? Might that still count as the Cleganebowl? (GET HYPE)

Concurring Opinion: Stefan
Riverrun will be the place of the Red Wedding 2.0, with Lady Stoneheart’s biggest killing spree happening. Tom of Sevenstrings is already in a great position and has been for some time now, and I expect more smallfolk to work for them. Opening the gates for the Brotherhood should be child’s play. I also agree with Dom: this is not a Riverlands version of “The North remembers”, in which the good people unite to get the old bloodline back on the throne. This is a more primal, rooted uprising that will upend political order in the Riverlands. 

Final Verdict: It will be place of Lady Stoneheart's great slaughter of Freys. 

Who are the three best battle commanders we know about so far, from past and present?

Main Opinion: Amin
Pre-Conquest: Theon Stark has to be up there, apparently dealing with Ironborn in the West and Andals in the East, conquered some territory around the Sisters as well (though there may have been some timeline issues with his battles, as with most legendary figures). Post-Conquest: Hard to choose any one commander until recent history. I’m going to say in the current era, Randyll Tarly and Stannis Baratheon. Although Randyll got the better of Stannis at the Blackwater, he had the odds heavily stacked in his favour there. Stannis has shown prowess on both land and sea, and I think will win the battle of Winterfell, showing the ability to adapt a foreign landscape and harsh winter to his advantage.

Concurring Opinion: Dom Tartaglia
Pre-Conquest: As opposed to any other commanders, Theon Stark’s victories dictated Westerosi identity. He set aside the Bolton/Stark rivalry to fight the Andals. He kept the North Andal free, and largely kept first men identity intact. He won Cape Kraken and Bear Island from the Ironborn. The North isn’t the North without Theon Stark. Post-Conquest: I agree in regards to Stannis. What also should be mentioned is how Stannis never stops learning. He gets cavalry charged by Randall and Tywin, and then uses the same strategy to break Mance in his next battle.

Concurring in part, dissenting in part: Stefan
Regarding the present, Stannis is surely up there, but only recently. Blackwater-Stannis wouldn’t have earned the spot. In the past, we get a pretty good number of good battle commanders, but given the bad sources, it’s really hard to pin down “the best”, especially if we include Essos in the mix. I’m also not sure whether we’re just speaking of “battle commanders” or also strategists in the wider sense, for which Theon Stark then would qualify (we know nothing about his actual battles). 

Final Verdict: Stannis and Theon Stark are up there. 

Where will Dany, Tyrion and Jon meet?

Main Opinion: Amin
Dany and Tyrion will meet in Mereen. They came teasingly close to in the books, and will certainly meet early in The Winds of Winter. I don’t know if Dany will make it over to meet Jon by the end of the book or sometime in the next. Tyrion may be sent in a different direction when they get to Westeros, he might not reunite with Jon at all. Though if he becomes a dragonrider, then it is more likely that he does get up to the Wall at some point, fulfilling the early interactions and friendship they had in A Game of Thrones.

Concurring Opinion: Dom Tartaglia
I don’t see it happening until book 7, but I see it happening at the Wall/the North.

Concurring in part, dissenting in part: Stefan
I’d agree that Dany and Tyrion will meet up in Essos in the first half of “The Winds of Winter”, but I’m unsure whether it will be in Meereen because I’m not sure Dany will actually return there. Perhaps it will be Volantis or Pentos, but I’m pretty confident for Essos. The two of them will link up with Jon only late, however, because first Euron Greyjoy will claim one of the dragons and has to be dealt with before they can truly go North, where they will find Jon.

Final Verdict: Dany and Tyrion will meet in Essos early in book 6, both of them will meet Jon at the Wall in book 7. 

15 comments:

  1. Did no one think to mention Ned Stark as a great battle commander? He won all of his battles and let others take the glory.

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    1. Considered it but in effect there's not much to go onto. Ned won the battle of the Bells because he had superior numbers and caught the enemy by susprise, and he later mopped up the rest of the loyalists after the Trident. Not much to go on.

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  2. Robb Stark seems to have been a pretty good battle commander, even if he was a lousy political strategist. Robert Baratheon must have been a fairly good battle commander. Aegon the Conqueror wasn't a good battle commander?

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  3. Zhea the cruel seems like one of the best military commanders of twoiaf.
    beto

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  4. Could Varys be a long-lost descendant of Saera Targaryen? She was the youngest child of the old king that fled to Lys then opened a pleasure house in Old Volantis. Yes, Varys was born a slave, so the descendants could have fallen on hard times in the 150+ years between the two, but Varys could have discovered his roots in all his secret-thieving. It would still leave his motivation a bit of a mystery - did he help bring down the Targaryens under Aerys II? Did he realize his mistake and work to bring down Robert and restore the Targaryens? Did he believe the old Targaryens of KL were too entitled? He may have seen how Aegon V lived a humble youth, and modeled that for Aegon VI. It may expain his need to shave his head bald (to prevent the tell-tale silver-gold hair from showing).

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  5. Was Mormont's whore in the Old Volantis brothel a descendant of Saera Targaryen?

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  6. Does Varys know about Jon Snow's parentage? I grant that whether he knows or not it doesn't affect his plans, I'm narrowing the question to does he know.

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  7. I'd never realised how the way Stannis wins the Battle against Mance's Army does quite closely parallel the way Stannis himself was beaten on the Blackwater. He's like the Borg - you only get one shot per tactic before he adapts!

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    1. If he really is planning on drowning the Freys in the frozen lake (there is no way he isn't), then there is another parallel to Blackwater: using terrain not as a force multiplier but instead as a weapon of mass destruction (i.e. wildfire/chain combo).

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  8. When did Roose decide to betray Robb? My re-read has me believing it was always his intent to do so. He went against direct orders and engaged Tywin from the off. He continuously bled the other Northern Houses whilst keeping his own troops safe. If it started then, what is his end game?

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    1. When Winterfell was captured. Before, he was improving his position relative to the other northern lords.

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