The Supreme Court of Westeros, ruling 19

Thursday is court day!
Welcome to the Supreme Court of Westeros! Every week, three pressing questions from the community will be answered by the esteemed judges Stefan (from your very own Nerdstream Era) and Amin (from A Podcast of Ice and Fire). The rules are simple: we take three questions, and one of us writes a measured analysis. The other one writes a shorter opinion, either concurring or dissenting. The catch is that every week a third judge from the fandom will join us and also write a dissenting or concurring opinion. So if you think you're up to the task - write us an email to stefan_sasse@gmx.de, leave a comment in the post, ask in the APOIAF-forum or contact Amin at his tumblr. Discussion is by no means limited to the court itself, though - feel free to discuss our rulings in the commentary section and ask your own questions through the channels above.
One word on spoilers: we assume that you read all the books, including the Hedge Knight short stories, and watched the current TV episodes. We don't include the spoiler chapters from various sources in the discussion, with the notable exception of Theon I, which was supposed to be in "A Dance with Dragons" anyway.
And now, up to ruling 19 of the Supreme Court of Westeros! Our guest judge this week is Adam Feldman, who runs the formidable blog of The Meereeneese Blot. If you haven't checked it out yet, stop reading right now and do so, because it's that good. He was a guest on the "Boiled Leather Audio Hour" with Sean and Stefan as well.

Who is the Perfumed Seneschal?

Main Opinion: Stefan

Either the Shavepate or Tyrion or Varys, I guess. Let's examine the cases. If one goes (as I do) with Adam's interpretation of the Shavepate poisoning the locusts, the warning could point to him, but I'm not sure why he would be perfumed. He's dangerous enough to warn Dany about, though. Tyrion arrives on the ship with the same name, which is likely a Red Herring, but given how instrumental he is in engineering the next Targaryen civil war, a warning would be apt a well. Varys its the incorporation of a perfumed seneschal, and he certainly is no friend of Dany's. I lean closest to Varys, provided Qaithe's warnings don't relate entirely to Meereen.

Dissenting Opinion: Adam Feldman

Reznak is too obvious and plot-inconsequential, I don't envision Dany ever being in the same room as Varys, and the Selaesori Qhoran is gone. But let's think about how prophetic knowledge works in the world of ASOIAF. It is simply not dramatic if Dany hears this warning, and as a result, correctly decides not to trust some perfumed person. Therefore, I believe Dany will either (A) ignore this warning, or (B) will attempt to abide by it, but this will backfire. Since the latter is more dramatic, I think Dany will wrongly mistrust some character who happens to be reeking of perfume. Separately, I have been wondering about Marwyn's role in the plot. Sam has told him the whole story of the Others and the threat they pose. Now, Marwyn is on his way to Dany, and when he arrives, he'll likely advise her to head to the Wall. Yet the foreshadowing indicates that Dany will go south and fight Aegon instead -- as does another Quaithe prophecy ("to go north you must journey south"). Therefore, I tend to think Dany will hear Marwyn's advice but choose to disregard it -- for several reasons, including that Marwyn trained Mirri Maz Duur, and that Tyrion will be advising her to go south to fight Aegon. Perhaps another reason Dany will mistrust Marwyn will be that he smells of perfume for some reason. So, though I have not the slightest idea why he'd be perfumed, I will go out very far on a limb and say the perfumed seneschal is Marwyn, and that Dany will not trust his warnings of the Others, and will choose to go south rather than north, to the detriment of Westeros. Thus, prophecy is a treacherous woman once again, as Gorghan of Old Ghis says.

Concurring in Part, Dissenting in Part: Amin

I agree with Justice Stefan that the Shavepate might be a danger (and traitor) but not actually the Perfumed Seneschal. Tyrion makes sense as he has already caused enough trouble to Dany’s cause by sending Aegon west rather than allowing him to team up with Dany (and provide useful reinforcements via the Golden Company). Tyrion’s number one loyalty is still to himself; he will not hesitate in betraying Dany if that works out better for him. His mind is a dangerous match for Dany’s and if he actually gains some sort of control over a dragon (Targ blood or not), that could be another angle of danger for Dany. I do think that the other main contender is still the most obvious reference: Reznak mo Reznak, who is perfumed, a seneschal, and, like Tyrion, has his number one loyalty to himself, not Dany. And perhaps like some other prophecies or foretellings, the Perfumed Seneschal can be more than one person, representing the dual dangers posed by Tyrion + Reznak.

Final Verdict: There are several possibilities, but one should certainly have an eye out for the small, stunted ones.

Why does Quaithe not mention Marwyn?

Main Opinion: Stefan

Four possibilities I see. First, he's not important enough for her to mention, maybe because he will arrive too late or not at all (Moqorro being able to fulfil the role of magic advisor just as well), or, second, he is such an undisputed ally that no warning is necessary or, three, he magically obfuscates himself, or, four, Qaithe being Qaithe and not exactly being concrete in her prognosis. I tend toward the latter two: Marwyn is introducing a new plot line, the Maester Conspiracy, and that can come totally out of the dark. Also note that Qaithe makes no mention of the other maesters neither.

Dissenting Opinion: Adam Feldman

See above -- I'm guessing she did, and that he's the perfumed seneschal! As the question alludes to, this also fits because the "perfumed seneschal" comes after a list of six characters Quaithe says will travel to Dany, and Marwyn is the only other significant character traveling to Dany but not mentioned by Quaithe.

Concurring Opinion: Amin

I find Justice Adam's theory about Marwyn being mentioned as the Perfume Seneschal interesting, but I’m not won over quite yet. For one thing, Marwyn didn’t strike me of the type to wear perfume or the like, but mainly because we don’t have enough information about him yet nor a reason why he would be represented by that particular comparison. I concur with Justice Stefan’s overall argument over the possible options for why Marwyn was not listed.

Final Verdict: Seriously, who understands anything Qaithe does?

Do you think Roose Bolton has any plausible escape routes left at this point or is he basically a dead man walking?

Main Opinion: Stefan

Narratively or politically? There is no reason to expect someone like Roose Bolton to come out on top. He is a walking dead, because he's just too evil, too much antagonist to survive this. Politically, tough, seen as a purely "what-if"-scenario, he has options left, if course. He could easily bend the knee to any new king if he wanted, even Stannis. Plus, he holds the North, which its pretty much unconquerable from the south. Of course, that requires him to win the battle of Winterfell (not likely), the Others not breaching the Wall (ditto) and Dany not roasting him with her dragons (possible). But fir narrative reasons, he has to go down.

Concurring Opinion: Adam Feldman

Dead as a doornail. Bolton's survival is dependent on no Stark ever being restored. Does anyone actually think that will happen? Jojen dreamed the wolves will come again. The only real question is whether Fat Walda's baby is born to continue the Bolton line, or whether the line is wiped out entirely.

Concurring Opinion: Amin

Bolton has a strong army and one of the most defensible castle in the realm. Despite that, he’s already started digging his own grave. First of all, he has risen very high, higher than the Boltons have been in centuries, and made many enemies in the North while doing so. Most of the other Northern families will not hesitate to backstab him or to bring him down if they get the chance. As the other justices pointed out, he has external threats like the Others (and potentially Dany) to deal with, unless one goes with the (still) longshot theory that Roose is aligned with the Others. Finally, he has his own despicable bastard Ramsay to deal with, who himself has both motive and desire to kill Roose if he ever gets the chance to safely do so. As Justice Adam pointed out, the survival of the Bolton line may be up for question. If they do die out, destroying the Dreadfort may be better than reassinging it, given that it is dangerous for anyone but the most loyal vassals to control such a defensible castle in the heart of the North, coupled with the nasty history of the location.

Final Verdict: Bolton is dead. It is known.