Supreme Court of Westeros, ruling 13

Thursday is court day!
Welcome to the Supreme Court of Westeros! Every week, three pressing questions from the community will be answered by the esteemed judges Stefan (from your very own Nerdstream Era) and Amin (from A Podcast of Ice and Fire). The rules are simple: we take three questions, and one of us writes a measured analysis. The other one writes a shorter opinion, either concurring or dissenting. The catch is that every week a third judge from the fandom will join us and also write a dissenting or concurring opinion. So if you think you're up to the task - write us an email to stefan_sasse@gmx.de, leave a comment in the post, ask in the APOIAF-forum or contact Amin at his tumblr. Discussion is by no means limited to the court itself, though - feel free to discuss our rulings in the commentary section and ask your own questions through the channels above.
One word on spoilers: we assume that you read all the books, including the Hedge Knight short stories, and watched the current TV episodes. We don't include the spoiler chapters from various sources in the discussion, with the notable exception of Theon I, which was supposed to be in "A Dance with Dragons" anyway.
And now, up to ruling 13 of the Supreme Court of Westeros! Our guest judge this week is Christina, who left grad school so that she could live in Greece full time as an archaeological illustrator. This means she spends a lot of time in basements and dusty storerooms surrounded by artifacts and listening to podcasts. She has guest hosted a few times on A Podcast of Ice and Fire, and has generally kept up with all the fan theories and various blogs that have to do with ASOIAF. She stopped watching Game of Thrones after the second season because of nerd rage.

How do you think Myrcella and Tommen will die? Since gold will be their shrouds, could that mean Myrcella will be crowned before she dies?

Main Opinion: Stefan

What does a shroud have to do with being crowned? And Myrcella won’t be crowned. By whom? Dorne is out of that equation, because they’re about to throw their lot in with Aegon. And Tommen is still alive and kicking. It may be that he dies first and then she gets crowned in absence of any more male heirs (because technically in case of Tommen’s demise Stannis would be next in line, but with him being a traitor and all...). But I don’t see any connection here at all. She will die, and since she’s blonde (golden blonde, no less), gold is the color of the Lannister lion and kings tend to surround themselves with that stuff, I personally think this one more metaphoric. On the other hand, they will die, and they will die ugly. For Tommen, there is a number of scenarios possible. First, Cercei could lose the trial after all, which would immediately render Tommen a bastard of incest with no claim to the throne. I imagine a hord of angry sparrows slaughtering him, which is a pretty likely demise for the little boy since it’s perfectly ironic: Cercei was the one arming the mob in the first place. But the advent of Aegon or the arrival of Blood-and-Fire-Dany could also both be his end. Myrcella, on the other hand, is dead meat as soon as Dorne openely declares for either Targaryen. I could very well imagine Doran presenting dead Myrcella in an orange coat to Aegon or Dany. It would be just his style of taking revenge, because he holds grudges. By the way, their deaths will have impact on the storyline, not in a plot-sense, but in a narrative sense: in the very beginning of “A Game of Thrones”, we get a very strong rejection of the notion of killing children as a political strategy, and Eddard goes down defending this ethical imperative twice in a row: first, when resigning his handship over Dany, opening himself to Jaime’s attack, and second, when he refuses to seize Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella. The murder of Tommen and Myrcella will be bloody, cruel and mark whoever does it (my money is on Dorne for at least one). It will also mirror the murder of Jahaerys Targaryen by Blood and Cheese in the Dance of the Dragons, which Martin surely didn’t put in there just because.

Dissenting Opinion: Amin

I agree with Justice Christina that having Cersei’s three children crowned royally in some manner would fit quite well poetically. I think that Myrcella will be crowned and possibly could be considered ‘crowned’ in the sense of Arianne’s failed queenmaking plot in A Feast of Crows; the plot failed, but they did refer to her as a Queen which may meet the requirements of the prophecy. I do not know if Myrcella will die, but if she does, I do not think it will be by Doran’s orders. I do not think he wishes her dead and he will do what he can to protect her. However, Doran is not long for this world: Dorne may become a very dangerous place for Myrella if she remains there, while King’s Landing is never safe if she returns to the capital. I do kind of hope that she doesn’t literally die, but instead becomes ‘dead to Cersei’ by turning away from her or against her. However, if the poetic parallel requires all three to be crowned, sadly all three may have to die as well.

Concurring Opinion: Christina

Whether Myrcella will be crowned queen depends on how you interpret the phrase "gold will be their crowns". This could mean a literal crown, or this could mean a metaphorical one, as in the blond hair on her head. However, I like the poetic parallel of all three Lannister children being crowned as actual rulers, and all three of them dying. At this point in the story, it's hard to see how this would occur for Myrcella. Hence, I think her "crowning" will probably be a technicality, done in a rush, in secret, or in absentia, with her death probably occurring closely afterwards. As regards to the actual details of her death, I'm guessing it's either at the hands of or related to FAegon's faction (or as detailed by Stefan, at the hands of Dorne wanting to gain favor with FAegon). I feel that even GRRM is too cruel to outright kill Tommen on the page, ie, someone with a sword just busts into his room and stabs him as he's playing with his kittens and refusing to eat beets (Look how hopeful I am, even after all this time! I mean this as opposed to Tommen's violent death happening offscreen and related after the fact), so I think Tommen will be dispatched by more underhanded means - poisoning, throat slit in the night, etc. This leads me to think (and I am totally guessing here of course), that Tommen's assassination will be the result of a hit taken out against him through the Faceless Men, maybe by the Iron Bank wanting to get the pieces in place for Stannis to take the throne. This would bring in the interesting possibility that Arya could maybe have something to do with it, but who knows. I'm sure that Tommen will die in front of Cersei, who will go even more batshit crazy afterwards, leading to such unpredictable behavior that Jaime (the valonquar) is forced to kill her.

Final Verdict: The children will be crowned, the children will die, but how much of it is a metaphor and the exact circumstances are up for debate. 

I believe that Davos Seaworth will be crowned king in the end of all of this. We have read as he has risen through the ranks of knight, landed noble, and eventually hand. I think George R.R. Martin is telling a very long rags to riches story concerning an unassuming common man, with a good heart, that has nearly lost everything he holds dear beacuase of his values.

Main Opinion: Stefan

I think that’s a bunch of Malarkey. We have also read repeatedly that Davos has “risen too high”, and practically every character we ever met and their mothers affirm that Davos is too lowborn for anything. He also doesn’t have any ambition whatsoever, nor does he have anyting that would make him suited for the office. A king needs to command respect - he doesn’t. A king needs to have authority - he doesn’t. A king needs to have a claim on the throne - he doesn’t. A king needs a powerbase - he doesn’t have one. The list goes on. This is no fairytale. Davos isn’t Pate the Pigboy, rising high. In case you didn’t read between the lines: Pat the Pigboy is a song, a story, and the whole Sansa-plotline has a deal to say about the probability of those coming true. Everything that happened, everything that was said up to this point in the storyline points in the exact opposite direction, and rightly so. Davos is no king material; he would be another miserably failing king, and he knows it. Seriously, who would even offer him the crown? And why? This doesn’t make any sense at all.

Concurring Opinion: Amin

I agree with my fellow judges that it is unlikely and would come out of nowhere. However, I would not be surprised if Davos did survive and remain in a decent position at the end of the story. Not every person that rises high must fall later on, though there definitely is a glass (or Valyrian steel) ceiling in both our world and in Westeros.

Concurring Opinion: Christina

If that happens, I will go gouge my eyes out. This ain't no fairy tale, friend. As Stefan pointed out, there is nothing in these stories that would point to such an outcome. It smacks of fantasy trope-ism, and GRRM is famous for not following them. Also, you seem to think that being king is somehow a prize for the winner at the end of this series; I rather would think it a curse, which I believe is the point GRRM is trying to make. I like Davos too much for him to end up this way. His happy ending would be to retire to some island near Dragonstone with his family and live the rest of his days sailing his boat around.

Final Verdict: No, Davos will not become king. Never, ever. Really, no. No. No. No.  

Was the child who the Targaryen's switched with baby Aegon (before Gregor Clegane dashed it against a Wall) actually the son of Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne (thus leading to her suicide). After all, the Dayne family bear an uncanny resemblance to the Targaryens, and so one of their children could pose as the prince.

Main Opinion: Stefan

Yeah, that’s possible. But I still think it simply was Aegon, and that the Aegon in Essos is not who he thinks he is. And how would they have gotten that child from Starfall to King’s Landing, why would Ashara consent to this, and why the fuck? And seriously, since when do we need children resembling what they ought to be when dealing with the likes of Gregor Clegane? Actually, this brings me to another interesting point I hadn’t even considered yet. No one could possibly know that a stupid brute like Clegane would get into the bed chamber and smash the boy’s head to the wall. Everyone recognized Rhaenys, stabbed to death by Lorch. Illyrio’s and Varys’ story makes even less sense if you think that they couldn’t have planned this. The Aegon-swap was almost surely done after the fact.

Concurring Opinion: Amin

I think that the Brandon Stark/Ashara Dayne aspect of this question is a different question that could be analyzed by our Court at another time. In result, I agree with my fellow judges that if such a baby existed, the baby swap suggested would be unlikely. There were other substitutes available closer that would have fit the task, assuming the swap legitimately occurred in the first place. The comparatively stronger potential for a swap would be if FAegon himself were this suggested child, which again is a separate question, but the importance of looks would matter more for an adult than an infant.

Concurring Opinion: Christina

I agree with Stefan - I don't think there was a baby swap, because I think that really was Aegon who got his head smashed in. I also agree that even if there was a grand conspiracy to swap babies, why the hell would you need some highborn bastard baby all the way from Dorne? I highly doubt anyone cared that much (or would think to be suspicious enough) to double check the identity of a dead baby. Any dead baby would do.

Final Verdict: The dead baby may have been Aegon or any random baby like Varys claimed, but it's not Ashara Dayne's baby.