Thursday, May 23, 2013

My stance on various ASOIAF conspiracy theories, Part 30

Thursday is theory day.
This is the thirtieth article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail ( and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.
Prepare for part 30. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously.

What happened to Tyrek Lannister? 
In case you don't remember Tyrek Lannister, he's the squire who gets lost during the riot in King's Landing never to be seen again. Tyrion, Cersei and Tywin all go through great pains to find him, and he's constantly mentioned throughout "A Clash of Kings" and "A Storm of Swords", but never found. Tyrion suspects he's dead, but there can be found no evidence one way or the other, and Tyrek isn't really important aside from being another dead son of Tygett's. But the rule of Checkov's gun applies, and someone so often mentioned seems to have some important role to play. Suspect number one of course is Varys, who would have the means at his disposal to get the boy and to keep him hidden for some sinister plan. What that plan could be, however, isn't exactly clear. It's always good to have a Lannister in reserve, I guess, but Tyrek's of no real importance. The same was thought about Jeyne Poole, of course, so perhaps Varys wants to have an heir to Casterly Rock loyal to "Aegon" in reserve? Might be, but seems a long shot. My guess would be that Tyrek is really dead and that this is a red herring.

Is Varys a warg?
I honestly don't know how such stuff comes up. Varys is from Essos, where warging - as in every land south of the Neck - isn't exactly something that's found very often. Second, wargs all seem bound to the North in some way, in character and mind, and Varys is neither. Third, if he was, it would render his whole character meaningless. For starters, he hates magic, so he'll hate wargs too. If he could practice some magic skills, why would he hate all magic and not differentiate between the demon worshipper he suffered from and others? Clearly, he isn't interested in semantics here. Second, on a narrative level, Varys' gruesome efficiency comes from the army of "little birds" he has, the mute children trained by Illyrio. This is a really evil act, and would be unnecessary if Varys could warg into the mice in the wall. But he can't, obviously, so he needs the little birds. One has to be careful with magic, because its power changes characters. The thing with Varys is that he really invests much in costumes and acts and the little birds, so it makes no sense for him to be a warg at all.

What's the relationship between Dany and the Faceless Men?
The answer to that question depends in large parts on the position you have on the Faceless Men. Are they opposed to magic, and do they have a long term goal? I would think that they are opposed to slavery, since they're set in Braavos, and therefore should be positively inclined towards Dany, but we don't really know what the agenda of these guys is and how they pick their targets. It seems likely that Jaqen H'qar's mission is to retrieve a book about how to kill dragons, and Jaqen is an agent of the House of Black and White, so I expect that they are at least very careful about Dany and, more likely, up to no good.

By the way, I'm through my supply of questions, so if you want to know anything, ask away. My quiver is empty for now. 


  1. How do you see the plotline with the Faith/Faith Militant in King's Landing playing out? Who will their champion be in trial by combat? Who has enough power in the city to dispose them if more and more of the faithful keep flooiding the city? What outside army (Dany/Aegon/Dorne) would they support, if any? I believe thier existence and future moves is going to be a big contributing factor to the eventual fall of Kings Landing.

  2. Small correction: Tyrek isn't one of Kevan's sons, he's the son of Tygett Lannister (3rd son of Tytos, after Tywin and Kevan).

    Prevailing theory goes that if Tywin and Kevan's bloodlines were both eliminated, either through death or disinheritance (Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion, Lancel, Martyn, and Janei - it doesn't seem likely that they'll all go, but it is certainly feasible), then by default Tyrek would become the next-in-line to inherit Casterly Rock if he were still alive. It could be that nothing will come of this, but almost everything that Jaime says or thinks in AFFC tends to make a lot of sense, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

    1. Corrected, thanks.
      And thanks for the info, I worked it in.

  3. Hi Stefan, I really enjoy your posts and podcasts. Here are a few questions:
    What will Dany be like if she wins the Iron Throne? She hates almost every major house for betraying Aerys?
    Do you think Varys intentionally led Tyrion past the Tower of the Hand to kill Tywin, if so was Shae planted?
    Will Tyrion and Sansa meet again?
    Will Tyrion take the Vale, he mentions he has an idea of how to do it several times?
    What is up with Ser Garlan Tyrell's obsession with Tyrion? Almost every time we see him he is praising Tyrion.
    Who is the best player of the game of thrones? Varys, Littlefinger, someone else?
    Will Dany arrive in Westeros in TWOW?
    Do you think we'll get a Prologue or POV from an Other?
    At the end of the series what will become of Winterfell, who will be the lord?
    What was a more significant event shrouded in mystery, The Tourney at Harrenhal or Summerhall?
    Was Rhaegar really as great as Ser Barristan and Jorah claim? Why does Jorah speak so highly of him, he couldn't have known him well?
    Will Arya die frozen with a Needle in her hand?

    Thanks, keep up the great work. I would also love another BSG post.

    1. Wow, thanks! And BSG...when I find a topic I care enough about, sure.

  4. What happened to all my questions from before Stefan? I don't think you answered them? :) (see comments from previous weeks)

    1. Found them:

      Stefan, can you give some of your thoughts on Bloodraven? What is he doing with the Children of the Forrest? How did he last so long? Why is he seeking out Bran? In your opinion of course...

      Also who do you think is the woodswitch on high heart, as well as Quaithe?

      Also I recall that Cersei conceived a child from Robert Baratheon, but Jamie was able to rid of the child with a woodswitch of some sort? Do you think it is possible the child survived and was switched and could possibly be Gendry?

      Will we see anymore of Loras in TWOW or ADOS? If so what will become of him?

    2. Really enjoy, keep the series going. A few more, you might of already got to these:
      Who ends up the heir to Winterfell?
      What is undead Catylen's end game?
      What would of happened of Jamie didn't kill the Mad King?

    3. @Elisa: I'm pretty sure I did those. Not exactly in that phrasing, but I wrote something about all of them.
      @Jon: Thanks!

  5. Coul be a link between Hoster-Tansy-child story and Jon Snow ?

    1. I don't understand please specify.

    2. Remember when in ASOS we have a Catelyn chapter where Hoster is dying and talks about Tansy and a child ; it seems to me that must have an importance for the big picture .

      On the other hand, there are big chances that GRRM heard that fans descyfred the R+L=J theory ; in this case , he must have a plan B ; could be the above mentioned child Jon Snow ?

      or not Jon Snow, but somebody important for the story (Aegon, Tyrion ?)

      There are some chances that Hoster-Tansy-child to be somebody that will appear in the last 2 books ...

    3. There is some strong evidence against it, but I'll put the question in my list and tackle it at some later point.

  6. Is it just me, or would Jaqen H'qar been dispatched on his mission to find a book regarding how to kill dragons before Dany had begun freeing slaves? It's possible that the Faceless Men dispatched him before realizing that Dany's anti-slavery ideology aligned with theirs, making her a potential ally.

    1. Nah, he was on his way before the dragons hatched. The dragons hatch at the end of AGOT, when Yoren has already collected them from the dungeons. Remember, he's only waiting for Ned, or he would have been on the way back already. It's safe to assume Jaqen was imprisoned before Dany was wed to Drogo.