Thursday, October 17, 2013

Stefan's Theory Hour, part 47

Thursday is Theory Day!
This is the fourty-seventh article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.
Prepare for part 47. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously. 

And do you think Taena Merryweather is spying for Doran Martell?
I honestly never asked myself that. I don't even know where the connection is supposed to come from. For the sake of the argument, let's weigh the pros and cons. The biggest con is her marriage: she's alligned with Merryweather, which is a house of the Reach, the traditional enemies of Dorne. The next thing is that she allied with the Lannister cause by testifying against Tyrion. Of course, this could have been just a ruse to make her game less obvious. Doran has someone at court (he speaks of "friends"), and it might well be. However, Taena would be too good a source. During "A Feast for Crows" and "A Dance with Dragons", Doran doesn't display any level of insight that hints at Taena. He only suddenly gains big information (about the attack plan on Trystane) when Cersei is removed from power, which strongly hints at someone in Kevan's entourage. It might even be a Tyrell ally, although that seems less likely, due to the enmity. But Taena has no information at all after Cersei is imprisoned and, if I remember correctly, even fled the city. No spy of Doran would do that. Plus, I don't see where the connection is coming from. Taena is from Myr, and Doran has connections to Norvos, which is half a world away from Myr. So, no, I don't think Taena spies for Doran. That's someone else, someone I highly doubt we ever met.  

What's Euron's endgame?
Why, conquering the world, of course. Euron is mad. He wants to really do this. Control dragons and such. We don't know much about him, but he has been to Asshai and drinks the blue stuff regularily. Most likely, that gave him a healthy sense of self-worth, something he didn't really lack before. The guy has some magic aces up his sleeve, including the magic horn he puts on Victarion, and he probably thinks that these gadgets, combined with the superior amateur's wisdom he has on some magical stuff and the connections to sorcerer guys he built will be enough to actually go through with his plan. I'm sure that he doesn't have any interest in the Ironborn themselves. They are means to an end, and he will happily give the islands to whoever cares about them when he gains what he wants. If he gains it, to be precise, because I can't see him really win this thing. Even if he'd conquer the Iron Chair, he would be the proverbial dog that caught the car and now doesn't know what to do with it. Euron is a force of malice and chaos, much like Littlefinger, who is interested in the thrive for the sake of the thrive. The two have much in common, although they obviously differ greatly in their experiences and background.

What had happened if Arya and Sansa escaped KL?
Boy, that would send a chain reaction through the storyline. They would have been brought to Winterfell and stayed there, prompting Catelyn to stay there as well. The Lannisters have no hostages left after executing Ned, which will greatly diminish the prospects of Jaime Lannister of survival. No one capable will treat with Renly, which doesn't matter anyway, so that's a dead end. But more importantly, Robb might never agree to Frey's demands, dooming his campaign then and there. So many ifs. The most important factor is Catelyn staying in the North and not advising Robb, for better or worse. Most likely Theon wouldn't have been able to conquer Winterfell, neither. But like always with counterfactual history, it's very, very hard to predict. You can guess at some initial consequences, but those breed consequences of their own, and the farther you go down the road, the more the story deviates from what we know. I'd say the North is safer, but Robb's war goes more badly as the general result. Maybe they even get a peace out of it, who knows.

18 comments:

  1. You may already answered these, but I have related questions for a future article: Who is Coldhands? What happened to Benjen Stark if it is not him?

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  2. Doran Martell's "well placed source" is probably Varys. Taena seems to be playing a double game, but I'm not sure for whom.

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    1. I think Taena is just what she seems to be: an opportunist who tried to attach herself to Cercei.

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    2. I got that feeling too. I think Taena's narrative role isn't as another power's spy but simply to reemphasize just how clueless Cersei is by her not being able to recognize an obviously-slimy opportunist.

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  3. Just a thought about the Sack of KL: Jaime claims that he saved the people of KL when he killed Aerys. But was it really worth it considering how many people were killed during the sack itself?

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    1. How can you even ask? Even if he saved only one - yes, of course. A life's saved is a life's saved.

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    2. Besides, this is no common fire we are talking about. The death toll and destruction caused by the sacking would have been nothing compared with the fire caused by the wildfire, which had substance pots in various strategic points in the city. The fire would have destroyed The Red Keep, King's Landing and all its people, consumed the Kingswood, and probably spread to the rest of the crownlands or at the very least to the Rosby and Stockeworth lands.

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  4. This is not a theory, more like a funny what if. I want to know what you think about Ramsay giving Theon a circumcision? We get a lot of hints that Theon probably got a Varys done to him?
    "He has only taken toes and fingers and that other thing"
    "You know I don't have..."
    Makes you think that he got his little soldier chopped off, but we know Ramsay doesn't like to cut body parts unless Theon begs him after it has been flayed. What if Ramsey took the foreskin of Theon's penis but since Theon didn't ask him to cut if off it's still attached?

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    1. Maybe, but the symbolic is stronger with the penis removed. Ramsay wanted to unman Theon, and he can't do that with circumcision.

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  5. Do you think Roose Bolton will kill off Ramsey if Fat Walda gives birth to a boy? He told Reek that Ramsey would kill the the child and that he does not agree with child Lords, but surely Ramsey will see the destruction of House Bolton when Roose dies!

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    1. Maybe. Originally Roose was willing to let Ramsay face justice at the hands of Winterfell (his only son then, after his trueborn son "died") so its a given that there is little love between them. After he stole the power of the North by betraying Robb he legitimized Ramsay in order to win Winterfell by marrying him to fake Arya. It is not in his current best interests to kill him, but he could dispose of him once things quiet down in the North if he keeps causing discomfort with the northern houses. His children by Walda would still inherit the Dreadfort since Ramsay already has Winterfell and the Hornwood lands...right?

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    2. Interesting topic, put it on my list. Be a while, though.

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  6. Do you think Daenerys and Aegon (either Fake and Treacherous or Real and Manipulated) will reach and agreement or take each other out?
    It seems that they will eventually stand on opposite sides for dominance of Westeros (foreshadowed by a sh*tload of prophecies since book 2) but how do you believe things will play out between the two?

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    1. Take it on my list. Just one thing: Dany's the "Slayer of Lies".

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    2. Right on dude, right on.

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  7. Does anybody know what the Spring Sickness was all about? We know it killed a ton of people during Dunk's time but we don't know what kind of disease it was, it even killed the King and several Targaryens.
    On a side note, it has been told that the Targs magic blood keep them from getting diseases, but we know that the spring sickness killed some Targs...so whats up with dat?

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    1. Very good question! Put it on the list, will be a while, though.

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