Thursday, October 10, 2013

Stefan's Theory Hour, part 46

Thursday is Theory Day!
This is the fourty-sixth article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.
Prepare for part 46. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously. 

What would have happened if Jon Arryn succeeded?
We all know that Jon Arryn was poisoned, most likely by his wife on Littlefinger's behest, before he could bring knowledge of the Lannister plot to his king.  But what if he had escaped death, at least long enough to shed light on the thing with Stannis? The result is pretty easy to see, actually. The king would have been furious and immediately ordered the arrest of Jaime and Cersei, and probably the squires and other Lannister personell as well. There would have been a real purge. These arrests most likely would have been succesful, given how badly prepared Cersei is through the whole of "A Game of Thrones". The coup would have been supported by Stannis and Renly (and, accordingly, the Stormlands), most likely the Tyrells (who were already plotting with Renly to marry Margaery to Robert) and certainly the Starks. The Riverlands and the Vale of Arryn would have been in as well, with no chance of Littlefinger hindering it (Jon Arryn went public in this scenario, after all, so even Lysa wouldn't have been able to stop the later Lords Declarant). Dorne and the Iron Islands would most likely have stayed out of it entirely. This means that Tywin Lannister either accepts the outcome and sacrifices Jaime and Cersei to cut his losses, or stages a doomed rebellion. In either case, the Lannisters would have been done as a power factor. Robert would have fathered new heirs on Margaery, Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella might survive and be exiled (or even sent to Casterly Rock, depending on Robert's mood and the prevailing of calmer voices). "A Game of Thrones" would be approximately 100 to 200 pages at the most, with the heroes triumphant and no real story to tell left over.

Will Sansa ever find out that her unintended betrayal her father resulted in his imprisonment and therefore kicked started the war?
How can you even ask that? Of course she will! And woe Littlefinger when she does. Petyr Baelish is already committing a grave mistake in tutoring Sansa anyway, who will certainly gain more and more agency from the knowledge she gathers and depend less and less on Littlefinger, even without that nasty detail. But imagine when she is married to Harry the Heir and unites the swords of the Vale, the North and the Riverlands behind her claim...and then finds out. Goodness, where does Littlefinger think he can run to? Sansa's his blind spot, a huge blind spot. For maximum narrative impact, though, I guess she will find out before she acquires a real powerbase. I'd say it will kick-start her transformation from piece to player, a transformation that has been prepared for five books now. The payoff for this has to be huge. Let her plot the downfall of Littlefinger from within, always fearing to be discovered, and then do him in the moment of his greatest triumph. "I never warned you not to trust me, you know." Perhaps she'll even team up with Dany for this, a plan Littlefinger clearly also has (the carpets he orders from Cersei show the Targaryen arms, remember?).

What do you think is 'the three heads of the dragon?'
The dragon is Azor Ahai, the Prince Who Was Promised. It's a three-headed dragon, which means (besides obviously being house Targaryen's arms) that three people will fulfill the role, which makes sense given that there are three dragons. I wager all of the three heads have Targaryen blood, and all of them are fan-favorite POV characters. Jon, Tyrion and Danaerys are the three heads, and they will unite - if only briefly. I can't imagine the three heads to become best buddies for life and rule the Seven Kingdoms happily ever after. Especially Jon is a wild card in the game, but even Dany currently takes a really dark turn, so while the Three Heads will most likely be decisive in defeating the Others, I'd rather not wager any money on them being beloved heroes after. More likely that they will go down in flame and fire, and be remembered more as a benign natural catastrophe, devestating but preferable to an Other victory.

40 comments:

  1. I hope you're right RE: Sansa. I actually enjoy her progression. Her being able to marshal the strength of the Vale with the North and any loyal Tully bannermen still remaining and unleashing it on the man that trained her/kept her as his pet would be awesome. I hadn't considered Sansa being able to strike a deal with Dany, though. I also don't know what Sansa's role will be in the coming long night. She's learned just about every political and subterfuge trick in the book, but how will that play when the others come?

    I love the direction of her story, but I just can't fit her into overarching the others are coming storyline.

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    1. I agree. Its hard to see how Sansa's story will play out in the end. If she does unite the Vale/Riverlands/North(?) with whom will she end up siding with? So far I see three major factions coming out in the last two books:
      1) Aegon's (Dorne, Remaining Stormlords, The Faith, Golden Company)
      2) Daenerys' (Slaver's Bay Freemen, Dothraki, Sellswords, Iron Fleet, Volantis and Miscellaneous Free city's folk, Red Priests)
      3) Stannis' (Dragonstone Lords or King/Queen Men, Wildlings, The North, The Night's Watch, Braavos)

      The Lannister/Tyrell allience will be destroyed early in WoW, leaving the Westernlands, the Reach, Iron Islands, Riverlands and the Vale to choose among the factions. I hope that Sansa ends up siding with Stannis but I fear Catelyn will end up destroying any chances of that happening since she never liked Stannis.

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    2. I highly doubt that Stannis will be a faction very long. Sansa will side with Dany, of course. They are a perfect match. Sansa could even be the one to bring Dany back from the warpath and remind her of why she got into the game in the first place (Doreah!).

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    3. Come on, Stefan! Don't underestimate stannisisthefury. Hell, even if the guy died I imagine he'd become a white and continue on his quest for the throne because it's his duty.

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    4. I put Stannis as a faction cause I don't see the North just going over to Aegon or Dany anytime soon, maybe it will unite under Rickon or Jon Reborn after he dies. Stannis might bite the dust soon, but I hope he survives the story even if he doesn't become king. I'm a huge Stannis fan and I think he is one of the most polemic characters in the story. I think he gets a lot of hate for being so stupidly stubborn and because he killed Renly even though Renly would have done the same. Stannis didn't know Mel was going to birth a shadow assassin to kill his brother, it vexes me to think people believe Stannis knew about the shadow thing, had Mel told Stannis step by step how she was going to kill Renly he would have berated the sh*t out of her and send her away for talking crazy.
      There is no creature half so terrifying as a truly just man.
      Few of the birds that Aemon had sent off had returned as yet. One reached Stannis, though. One found Dragonstone, and a king who still cared

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    5. Hey, I like Stannis as a character. But that doesn't mean I see him winning.

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    6. I don't see Stannis winning either, there is no way he ends up king...but I do hope he survives the books and ends up Master of Laws or something, though I doubt it. Edric Storm or Gendry could end up being legitimized and becoming lord of Storm's End in case Stannis and his daughter die.

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  2. I have this theory (don't know if somebody already came up with it) that Sybell Spicer slipped Robb a roofie to sleep with his daughter and used sorcery to force him to marry Jeyne and to make her look more physically appealing (which would help explain the "Hips" theory).
    As we all know Sybell was Maggy's descendant, and an opportunistic backstabber. She decided to make Robb betray the Frey alliance and start her machinations with her brother Rolph and Tywin. It doesn't matter the outcome of the war, she is in a Win-Win situation:
    -If Robb loses the war (which he did thanks to her, Bolton, Frey and Lannister) she will be rewarded by Tywin since she let him know right away what she was up to.
    -If Robb somehow ends up the winner, her daughter is the Queen of the North and her
    descendants are royalty securing her house status.
    She uses freaky magic/potions to ensnare Robb to Jeyne and charms her appearance. That's why Catelyn thinks her pretty and with good hips whereas Jaime sees her plain and skinny. I don't think she got switched with her sister since with the exception of herself and Rolph, the rest of the Westerlings don't know about the plot and it would be weird if Eleyna was acting with Jaime.

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    1. I don't like the magic part about it. Seems to cheapen everything too much.

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    2. as the are not in the TV show, I highly doubt that

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    3. Yeah, I don't see any reason why Sybell could use magic. The roofie thing "could" make sense, just think about it:
      Robb is wounded and grieving, Sybell sends Jeyne to take care of him and gives her a potion (milk of the poppy or dreamwine) with a hidden ingredient to get Robb horny and Bam! Honorable Robb breaks his vows.

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    4. Or he simply gets horny because of what they say: he was grieving, and Jeyne nurtured him. Come on, he's 16!

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    5. Seems much more fun if it's just a happenstance and/or the logical consequence of 15-year-old Starks leading armies without adult supervision.

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    6. That's Martin's sense of realism. You were adult pretty early back then, and he wanted that element, because it feels so strange to us.

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  3. So you believe that Tyrion is the son of Aerys?

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    1. If I`m not mistaken, Tywin`s and Joanna`s wedding (during which Aerys took his liberties) took place before the birth of Jaime and Cersei, who are both older than Tyrion.

      Plus, Martin said that the three heads don`t have to be Targaryens.

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    2. Did he really? When?
      I don't care if the heads are or aren't though, its the same to me.

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    3. "Three heads of the dragon... yes... but the third will not nessesarily BE a Targaryen..."

      http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Sentry_Box_Books_Signing_Calgary_Canada

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    4. Yeah, but that might be Martin being cute. Not being a Targaryen would fit Tyrion and Jon both.

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    5. I've had a thought that the three heads are Jon (Ice & Fire), Dany (Fire) and Bran (Ice) - that Jon, Dany will each ride a dragon (Drogon for Dany, Rhaegal for Jon) and Bran will end up Warging Viserion. Maybe Bran is destined for other things, but also maybe not.

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    6. Maybe warging, but not one of the heads.

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  4. How do you think will end Margery's trial ?

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    1. Probably innocent, they don't have any concrete proof and Kettleblack just spilled the beans. It will probably be done before Cersei's which won't end up so good. Franken-Gregor will fight agains Gravedigger-Sandor and lose, then Cersei dies at the hands of the "Little Brother".

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    2. Nope. I place my bet here and now that the Cleganes won't fight each other.

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  5. Do you think that is something with Taena's boy that will come in KL to play with Tommen ? Could be a Faceless Arya that must accomplish his mission ?

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    1. Why in the world would Taena's boy be of any importance? He won't come to KL, obviously, since Cercei's not in power anymore. And Arya will get a more important job than to get Tommen a playmate and Taena a foot in the door of feudal politics, which is exactly what this was about. Consider the case closed :)

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  6. Will succeed Aeron to rise men against Euron ?

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    1. I think it is very likely, he is the most respected priest of the Drowned god and he rallied a lot of support all over the islands to start the kingsmoot. I think the real question is how he will try to overthrow Euron; Victarion and the Iron Fleet are in Slaver's Bay and Euron has most of the Iron Island's Ships raiding the Reach. There is also Asha and Theon (who may or may not die soon) who can take over the islands if they decide to make a deal with Stannis or just plain escape.

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    2. Put it on my list. But I think he will.

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  7. Now with Kevan and Pycelle dead, the small Council is Tyrell affair ; they have also the army there and seems to me that Margaery is almost absolved by any guilt . Looks like absolute power for Tyrell, even if they have troubles in other areas, how can they fall ?

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  8. Running out of allies among other things. The Reach is bleeding, you got the Ironborn raiding the sh*t out of the coasts and the rivers, the Brave Companions remnants pillaging the lands, and the Tyrell strength spread too thin all over Westeros just like the Lannister's. Loras sacrificed thousands taking Dragonstone, Aegon probably destroyed the garrison surrounding Storm's End leaving the Tyrell's primary strength in KL to be destroyed when Aegon takes his troops to win the throne. The Tyrells may not end up totally destroyed but their political dominance will soon disappear unless they jump on the Aegon bandwagon.

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    1. Completely agree, although the bandits are not really their problem. There are no Tyrells in the Riverlands.

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    2. Yeah, the bandits aren't that important, I just mentioned them cause some BC are heading to Oldtown and some Tyrell banner men were doing peacekeeping work around the crownlands and maybe hunting bandits into Riverland territory. Their biggest threat is definitely the Iron Born raiders and Aegon.

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    3. But the Redwyne fleet should now be released to protect the shore of the Reach since the fall of dragonstone. With the Iron Fleet across the narrow sea, the long ships shouldn't be much of a match for the Redwyne's fleet. With their power and since they've been relatively unblooded, the Tyrell's may be able to sail to and invade the Iron Islands and put down the threat before the Iron Fleet returns from slavers' bay. The Iron Islands have been heavily bled through the northern conquests and now harrowing the reach and sending the deep water fleet to slaver's bay. The islands themselves are probably wide open for the taking since the islands were already the most sparsely populated of the 7 kingdom regions and they've lost considerable manpower since.

      The North might be able to do the same with the fleet at White Harbor, but they'd have to field an invasion force which is probably currently engaged with Ramsay in the snow storm north of winterfell and they'd have to sail all the way around Dorne to do it. The Lannister fleet is probably capable as well, but they're without effective leadership and just as heavily battle weakened as the Iron Islands.

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    4. You're right. I hope to see a Redwyne VS Ironborn sea battle soon...but I don't think it will leave the victor in optimal conditions. I'm rooting for the Reach on that one but we shouldn't underestimate Euron, he might prove victorious yet. The problem with Euron is that he is such a wildcard in the worldwide scenario of the story; he came out of nowhere and took the Iron Islands' power and brought the hurt to the Reach while connecting the Daenerys storyline with the war in Westeros through the Iron Fleet.
      White Harbor's fleet is important but will it be used against the Iron Born? Will they have to sail all over Westeros or can they cross the continent through some river?

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    5. Somehow, I think Euron doesn't care about his strategic position at the Mander. His game is another, and he can always flee on the "Silence".

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    6. Oh, I definitely agree and believe that the attacks on the Reach are purely slight of hand, I just can't figure out what's in Euron's other hand. He doesn't seem to care about the Iron Island's at all and seems to be in it for some other much larger purposes. And why attack the Reach when the Westerlands are much more vulnerable? Seems like he's either in league with one of the other players in the game or he's striking at the strongest player left on the board to open up something else.

      I mentioned the Northern fleet not because I think they will be used against the iron born, but because it seems like another massive wild card. The North hasn't had a navy since Bran the burner and now there doesn't appear to be a fleet along the east coast that could rival it. Further, it's in the hands of Manderly, a wild card in and of himself. Just another interesting note, I suppose. If Sansa unites the North and Vale she'd have the largest blue water navy on the east coast with the completely unblooded army of the Vale. She could transport the knights of the Vale by sea into the North to put down the Boltons and maybe Stannis and then have two incredibly defensible positions in the bloody gate and the moat cailin. If the Tyrells invade the iron islands or turn the bulk of their force toward home then suddenly the riverlands and crownlands are there for the taking again with only a severely weakened lannister force there to hold the land.

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    7. In theory, everything you say is true. However, I think Littlefinger, for one, has other plans, and Sansa will not mature fast enough for her to hatch such plans on her own.

      Regarding Euron, the attack on the Reach seems to have been done only to gain control over the Iron Fleet, sending her to Danaerys. Without the loot from the Reach, he wouldn't have had enough support to dispose Victarion's commanders, and without that, no chance at the Iron Fleet.

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