Supreme Court of Westeros, ruling 74

Thursday is court day!

Welcome to the Supreme Court of Westeros! Every week, three pressing questions from the community will be answered by the esteemed judges Stefan (from your very own Nerdstream Era) and Amin (from A Podcast of Ice and Fire). The rules are simple: we take three questions, and one of us writes a measured analysis. The other one writes a shorter opinion, either concurring or dissenting. The catch is that every week a third judge from the fandom will join us and also write a dissenting or concurring opinion. So if you think you're up to the task - write us an email to stefan_sasse@gmx.de, leave a comment in the post, ask in the APOIAF-forum or contact Amin at his tumblr. Discussion is by no means limited to the court itself, though - feel free to discuss our rulings in the commentary section and ask your own questions through the channels above.

One word on spoilers: we assume that you read all the books, including the Hedge Knight short stories, and watched the current TV episodes. We don't include the spoiler chapters from various sources in the discussion, with the notable exception of Theon I, which was supposed to be in "A Dance with Dragons" anyway.

And now, up to ruling 74 of the Supreme Court of Westeros! Our guest judge this week is Manu Mishra, a member of the community.

What if Catelyn had become Hand of the King instead of Eddard?

Main Opinion: Amin

I am trying to think of a scenario where this was feasible possible. Not only would it be difficult to fit in the circumstances of A Game of Thrones, I believe there have been no previous female Hands of the King. But let us assume that Catelyn somehow becomes the Hand. I don’t think things improve much for the Starks. One thing right off the bat: Catelyn trusts Littlefinger even more than Ned does. In general, they have the ability to rule decently in their own home territories, but would be out of their element in the politics of King’s Landing. A more feasible question is what would have happened if Catelyn had stayed at Winterfell or returned earlier to rule as Lady Stark? It is possible that Theon’s plan to take Winterfell wouldn’t have worked, if she was more careful than Rodrick and held back a larger garrison at Winterfell. Or, Winterfell still falls and you run into Feathered Hat Theory territory (I couldn’t help the APOIAF reference).

Concurring Opinion: Manu Mishra

As Justice Amin points out, I don't think Catelyn has any better hope of outwitting the other players in King's Landing. If events played out in a similar fashion, Littlefinger may be more inclined to be gentler with her as a prisoner, and make sure to avoid a possible execution. The more interesting side is what happens with Ned if he remains in Winterfell; would he have raised the North to go free Cat? Would his bannermen follow? Ned is as well respected as anyone among the Northern lords, but there is no guarantee they'd rally to Cat's defense in the same way.

Dissenting Opinion: Stefan

For the sake of the argument, let’s assume that Catelyn is the power behind Eddard and that Ned is for some reason purely her agent, which is the only scenario in which this might work. Amin points out that Catelyn would throw herself fully behind Littlefinger, but she would also not be hampered by her personal code of honor as Ned would be (who would still insist of allying with Stannis). That means that when Renly’s offer (who would be one of the few players not shy about working with a woman) is on the table, she would likely try and persuade Ned to take it. The Starks would then control a Lannister puppet, several hostages and have a Tyrell-Baratheon-alliance at their back against which Stannis can’t hope to succeed. Tywin Lannister is isolated and without any chance, likely in open rebellion. In total, though, the scenario is very difficult to play out. The reason for this is that the events of “A Game of Thrones” hinge on a host of very precice timings and coincidences to work as they do, and if you change the slightes cog in the process, it all falls apart. Therefore, Catelyn at King’s Landing would throw a monkey wrench in everything, and given how the outcome of the events is the worst possible Stark outcome, her presence would produce an infinitely better one. But so would the presence of Rickon.

Final Verdict: It's a highly unlikely scenario, but at least she'd trusted Littlefinger more.

Does Stannis know that Mance is still alive?

Main Opinion: Amin

As we noted in Ruling 70, this issue is potentially intertwined with the question of whether Stannis knew about the rescue Arya attempt. If he knew about one, then he likely knew about the other. (See 'Operating in the Dark'). I wouldn’t be surprised if Stannis knew about the fake Mance execution and I think that he had the potential to be won over if the plan was presented to him. However, some of his actions do not require this explanation. As far as I remember, the weather was not as bad when he initially started the march to Winterfell, so he probably did not expect the extreme difficulties in getting there and getting bogged down just short of his target. He may also had alternate plans for taking Winterfell that did not require Mance. Melisandre has shown that she is capable of acting independently of Stannis and has a larger gameplan in mind, so I think the current situation where Stannis does not know is still the dominant interpretation.

Concurring Opinion: Manu Mishra

I'll come down as a "no" on this. For all the reasons Amin states, it is not outside of possibility that he does know. But what we do know about Stannis makes me believe he would give Mance his just desserts. Stannis has a strange yet strict code of honor; he removes four fingers from the man who saved Storm's End from starvation, and he claims to only fight the Iron Throne because he is the lawful king, not for greater ambition or power. I think Stannis does believe Mance deserves death for being a deserter and raising an army against the kingdoms, and I further think Stannis believes him dead.

Concurring Opinion: Stefan

Melisandre will want to keep the circle of people in the know as small as possible. Why tell Stannis? He’ll be off to war anyway, and he will be on board with everything she does. And why, she could still kill Mance at some point, or he perishes on the way. After all, she starts the mission as a boon to Jon to win his trust, not because she particularily cares whether or not the mission succeeds. Mance is a useful tool, nothing more. 

Final Verdict: Stannis doesn't know. 

Will Dawn play a bigger role down the road?

Main Opinion: Amin

I think Dawn will appear on stage in the series. Not sure if Darkstar manages to get his hands on it or someone else, but any appearance would be a larger role than the historic references it has had so far. If the theory that it is Lightbringer turns out to be true, then it certainly will play a role. But I don’t think that it is true. Although, you could accept that theory party by believing that it was Ligthbringer the last time around, but a new sword (or other thing, i.e. dragons) takes the role of Lightbringer this time around.

Concurring Opinion: Manu Mishra

I'd be really surprised if it doesn't. Just the phrases "The Long Night" and "Battle for the Dawn" seem to implicate the Sword of the Morning will play a larger role in the wars to come. Moreso than any other sword not held by a POV character, we have been hearing about Dawn since A Game of Thrones and know more about it than most. Strangely enough, Dawn is NOT Valyrian Steel, so it will be interesting to see exactly what role it does end up playing as "dragonsteel" is one of the only weaknesses of The Others.

Concurring Opinion: Stefan

A sword referenced as often as Dawn HAS to come up at some point or another. Why else the pain to make clear its significance, give it a connection to house Stark and expressly tell everyone where it currently is, waiting for a bearer worthy of its name, especially given the idea that some people believe Jon is a half-Dayne? Not that he would get or take it, he has a sword. Two magic blades seems excessive. I also don’t really think it’s Lightbringer, but yes, it will come up.

Final Verdict: Yes, it will play a bigger role. It might even be Lightbringer.