My stance on various ASOIAF conspiracy theories, Part 6

Thursday is theory day now. 

This is the fourth article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.

Prepare for part 6. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously. 


Why do so many houses seem out of heirs? 

It is a striking fact that many major houses seem to be very short of heirs. The Arryns, the Starks, the Baratheons and the Tullys were, at the start of the saga or halfway in, houses with very few heirs. The Arryns obviously are the most endangered species, relying on Robert Arryn. But the Starks now only have Bran and Rickon, which both are rather young, the Tullys only had Edmure to begin with who didn't have an intention to marry before "A Storm of Swords" and the Baratheons also titter on the brink of extinction. The Greyjoys are positioned a bit broader, but that not overly much, and the Tyrells have two possible heirs at least. The new Warden of the North, Bolton, doesn't have a trueborn heir and relies on his unstable bastard son turned true by royal decree. The only family that has a broader base are the Lannisters, with several branches. We don't really know whether other houses cultivate such branches too, however. It would be likely for the Tyrells, for example, who had enjoyed a long period without major casualties prior, and perhaps for the Greyjoys. We know for a fact that Starks and Arryns are running short because it is explicitly stated by Littlefinger and Catelyn, but since no one ever brought these issues up for the other families (except Baratheon, obviously), I think it's safe to assume there are cousins, uncles and more distant relatives to be had that share the name but not quite the "pure" bloodline of the major branches. In the end, it would come down to realpolitik anyway: look at the Darrys and you see where this road leads. The last heir, a young girl, gets wed to someone claiming the title. That's what would happen to survivors of other houses in similar powerless functions, as evidenced by Sansa Stark, too.

What happened to the Horn of Joramun?

The Horn of Joramun supposedly wakes the giants and, more importantly, has the power to bring down the Wall, if the stories can be believed. Now, Mance Rayder stated that what Stannis burned was just a fraud for the Watch to believe in, and most wildlings, too. So, if the Horn of Joramun ever existed, it was not in the hands of the wildlings. It`s likely they would have blown it by now, as desperate as they are. So, a popular theory is that Samwell Tarly has the horn, because the broken thing Jon found with the arrowheads inside was really it. It's a nice idea, and the thought of Sam carrying around the potential doom of the Wall out of nostalgia is funny enough, but somehow I'm not quite convinced. If it is the Horn of Joramun he's carrying, I doubt someone can fix it back into working condition. Of course, if Martin wants to bring down the Wall, the horn would be a good thing to do it since it was mentioned often enough, allright.

Who was to foster Robert Arryn?

This is one of the political subplots that follows mainly through "A Game of Thrones" and "A Clash of Kings". Robert Baratheon tells Ned Stark on his visit in Winterfell that he intended to foster Robert at Casterly Rock, with Tywin Lannister, but that Lysa's flight put an end to these plans. However, we later learn by way of Catelyn's chapters in "A Clash of Kings" that Robert was supposed to be fostered at Dragonstone, with Stannis. Stannis himself confirms this in a dialogue with Davos in "A Storm of Swords". So, which version is true? Who was to foster Robert Arryn? The answer is simple: both. The fostering of Stannis predated that of Tywin, but both were real plans. This is how I think it happened: Jon Arryn, while hand, saw his wife and son clearly for what they were and decided that the only sane thing to do was to wrestle the boy from his mother. He needed someone hard enough (Tywin comes to mind) and reliable enough (Tywin leaves your mind) to do the deed (meet Stannis). Then he made mortal error to tell his wife, who - in terror - ran to Littlefinger, who provided her with the poison, setting in motion the events at the beginning of "A Game of Thrones". Cersei, being the power player she is, grabbed the opportunity for more power and persuaded Robert to give his namesake to Tywin. Likely she was encouraged by Littlefinger`s "advice". Even Lysa could see that poisoning Tywin was no option, so she fled to the Eyrie, instructed by Littlefinger to wait for his return and to deny all suitors. Robert Arryn now was safely in his hands, without anyone knowing it, setting the stage for his one master move in the game of thrones. And that is the story behind fostering Robert Arryn.