Wednesday, October 3, 2012

My stance on various ASOIAF conspiracy theories, Part 1

This is the first article of a new series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right. 

Prepare for Part 1. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously.

Is Varys a Blackfyre? 
The idea behind this is that Varys belongs to the Blackfyres and has therefore reason to want to see the Downfall of house Targaryen. This is often matched with the idea that Aegon is in truth a Blackfyre, too, groomed to believe in his Targaryen heritage. The theory has the advantage of shedding some light on Varys' really very floggy motives. I don't think this is the case, however, and the main reason is a narrative one. For a house that we learned in "Game of Thrones" is near extinct, there are too many possible characters with possible Targaryen blood around already, Jon and Tyrion chief among them. Varys doesn't need a Targaryen heritage, he works - as a character - entirely without it. Him being the upstart thief with a gift for hand wringing, always silent, always knowing, is in and of itself sufficient, and I have the feeling that his story arc would be somehow devalued by a secret Targaryen heritage. Just like Littlefinger suddenly turning up "Hey, I'm a Targaryen, and I did it all for Dany" or something. It just would destroy what these characters are. That being said, it might be that a later reveal makes the arc more plausible, narrative wise. At the moment, it would be abrupt. But I never believed in Aegon suriving the sack of King`s Landing before "A Dance with Dragons", neither, and the same is true for "Tyrion is a son of Aerys", which gathered some strong evidence in the book as well. So, I'm sceptical but not really sure. 

Was Theon's dick cut off? 
When I did my reread of "A Dance with Dragons" a year ago and undertook the monumental task of recording it in my reread-blog, I was quite convinced that Theon's dick was still intact and that there is not enough evidence there to support the other idea. Now, a year later, I'm humbled. Dozens of fellow fans supported so much evidence and context that I can't deny the strong hints anymore. That being said, it makes Theon's chapters in "A Dance with Dragons" even more gross. The thought alone gives me creeps. I mean, such a sensitive area, and flayed - I should stop right here. 

Jeyne was swapped with a double and is hidden by the Blackfish, carrying Robb's offspring.
This theory was popularized by Ghostlovesinger, fellow contributor to "The Tower of the Hand", in his essay "Heir to the North". It essentially rests on the idea that while Catelyn in her chapters emphasizes the big hips Jeyne has - good for childbirth - while in Jaime's chapter in "A Feast for Crows", Jeyne is described as having small hips. Since Jaime didn't know her by sight, it is therefore possible. I don't like this theory, because for me it's a case of greatly over-interpreting the given text. Not only are Martin's POVs notoriously unreliable, he also makes mistakes, and this could easily one of them because there is nothing else to support the idea. It does seem rather pointless, too - even if she carried Robb's child, what happens next? I can't imagine her running with the Blackfish, playing Robin Hood and delivering the child in the midst of winter at the High Heart or something, so it can grow up swearing revenge. It's not that kind of story. That being said, I could be wrong, and if I am, I owe Ghostlovesinger at least a beer for constantly dissing him over the issue.

That's it for today. Ask your own questions in the comment or by mail!

29 comments:

  1. Yes, it's true. This man has no dick.

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  2. The great thing about Varys being a Blackfyre would be that he has an ax to grind with everyone which seems to be true because Varys has pretty much screwed over everyone: the Targaryens (ramping up Aerys' paranoia and not easing Rhaegar into power), the Baratheons (not warning Robert about all the conspiracies swirling around his head) and the Lannisters (obviously). So Varys being a Blackfyre would explain his motivation.

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  3. re: Jeyne swapped with a double. Why the detail about the hips if it wasn't meant as a clue? Hmmmmm?

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    1. I think it was a total innocent mistake by GRRM.

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    2. I would suggest this could be a mistake or oversight by Jaimie. Really, how many men notice or care if a woman has "child bearing hips" (whatever those are exactly)?

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    3. The "slim hips" phrase was apparently changed in international editions. Also, in the show (I know, I know, but the major plot points of the coming books have been revealed to the producers), Robb's wife (and her confirmed baby) dies. So, the show has no way of adding a secret heir to the North, which I think would have been a major plot point.
      Also, again, they changed that in the international versions, so that one phrase, which is all of the evidence, is gone.

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  4. Thank goodness you didn't get into the whole Varys is a mermaid thing. Or I guess merman... Mernuch?

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  5. Wait a second!!! What did I miss? Tyrion might be a son of Aerys? I totally missed any clues of that. On my second reread now.

    Great site by the way Stefan

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    1. Yeah, the idea is that Aerys raped Joanna Lannister. Barristan hints that Aerys desired her, and Tywin says he could never "prove that Tyrion wasn't his", one of Tyrion's eyes is dark (purple perhaps?) like Shierra Seastar, his hair is very light blonde, yadda yadda.

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  6. Actually, it makes much more sense if Aerys could be the father of Cersai or Jaime (fraternal twins can VERY rarely have different fathers) or both. Think about Tywin Lannister's character for a second: if he even halfway believed that Tyrion wasn't his, he would have left "it" out to be exposed to the elements soon after birth. But what if he wasn't sure the twins were his? First, his wife wouldn't have let him expose them. Second, his doubt wouldn't let him kill children that possibly were his. Further, it explains his hatred of Tyrion if it is the twins whose paternity he doubts, because a great deal of self-hate would be bound up in his emotions about Tyrion (he would see it as a weakness in himself that the only child that he knows is his is the misshapen dwarf)

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    1. But admitting to the world that Tyrion wasn't his by such an act would show himself to be a cuckold (a big deal for a powerful lord in this kind of context), which would lower his esteem in the eyes of other men, very un-Tywin. Much more likely he'd keep the child if he believes no one else knows. Concerning his character he is cruel and calculating but his prime motivation is the betterment of his house which is why he lets other people do his dirty work for him (freys, clegane) even if he did know for a fact any of 'his' children are not his he wouldn't kill them (become known throughout the world as at best a child murderer and cuckold at worst a child murderer and kin-slayer) or let an 'accident' befall them (thus proving he can't protect his own).

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  7. I agree with all your views. I look forward for your views of Tyrion is Aerys's son given that is the crackpot theory I have the most trouble with. I think it will ruin the whole Lannister family dynamics which I thought fascinating just as it was.

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    1. Yeah, I don't like the thought neither, but I also didn't like the whole Aegon idea and it turned out just fine. My confidence in Mr. Martin remains. :)

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  8. I think the evidence against Varys being a Blackfyre is pretty strong, given what we've learned about his politicking within the Golden Company to subvert the Blackfyre loyalist position (that all Targaryens are illegitimate pretenders) in favor of secret support for Aegon Targaryen.

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    1. Hi Steven, nice to see you again! I'm not exactly convinced, but I wasn't of Theon's dick, too, and I was swung around, so I'll pay attention on the current reread and see if something pops up.

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  9. Baby Aegon being alive and walking around threw a wrench in a lot of things. To me it was a bad development on a whole host of levels. Mostly because it meant that any of the outlandish, overly complicated and not really on-theme conspiracy plots could be "true."

    My own opinions:
    1. Varys as a Blackfyre: His motives are murky, and open to interpretation, but this one doesn't make a lot of sense. So, is the idea behind this that Varys is a Blackfyre supporter or a Blackfyre himself? If he's a supporter, it makes a bit more sense, but if he's a Blackfyre himself why would he want a younger brother or cousin on the throne and not himself?

    If Baby Aegon is a BF, Connington would have to be unaware of it and BA himself seems unaware. So, where's the victory for the BFs if they they finally get the throne without realizing they've gotten it?

    My own conclusion on this goes like this: What is ASOIF? As a story and a history what's its purpose? It's the story of the deposition, rebirth and restoration of the Targaryen dynasty of Westros. This theory doesn't fit the theme.

    3. Was Jeyne Westerling swapped out? This one has always been very frustrating for me because, on this point, fans have ignored the obvious. They've done it for a good reason, sentimentality. Who doesn't want Robb to have had an heir? Seriously.

    Even so, the thin hips are not a mistake; the very obvious answer for the disparity is grief. Grief causes most people to lose their appetite. Jeyne isn't a different person. She's the same person in mourning, thinner and wasting away.

    Cat sees Jeyne when she's a Queen, in love, and happy. Jaime sees her months later, her husband murdered, her parents complicit, her adopted cause defeated, her place as Queen ripped away.

    Everyone always has these super complex theories where Super Ninja Pregnant Jeyne swims hundreds of feet underwater in a raging river at the start of a ferocious winter in order to lead a merry band of rebels, baby in arms, through the multi-foot snow drifts. Not possible. Even in Westros.

    It's denial on the part of the fans, but human nature on the part of GRRM's characters. GRRM is respected b/c he pays attention to human nature and he's done so again in this case.

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    1. now wouldn't it be interesting to see a final clash between a Blacfyre (BA) and a Targaryen (dany) in the end.. pretty much going back 200 years in time?..
      The only thing that makes some noise, is that for the regular-non-nerdy followers of ASOIAF the Blackfyre conflict is not that installed along the history.. so it would probably make more sense to play an alliance between BA and Dany (2 heads for those dragons?) than to play out a confrontation

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  10. I'm personally more partial to the "Theon has only got one ball" theory, admittedly because you can whistle it to marching music.

    Concerning Jeyne: She could have been swapped for her younger sister and fled, but not necessarily with the Blackfish, and this also doesn't have to mean that she's pregnant. Maybe she was just royally sick of her mother's bullshit. Maybe the old witch killed her. Who knows. The theory "Jeyne swapped" seems conclusive to me, but what came after that... not so much.

    Will we get more theories soon?

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    1. Next week, I guess. I only have one written up so far, and since I'd like to stick to three per post, give me more fodder :)

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  11. Varys doesn't have to be a Blackfyre to be their agent.

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  12. I think its more possible that Cersei and Jaime are Aerys bastards than Tyrion, because of their nature (both are kind of crazy, as the Mad King, and have the Targaryen-like incest). tyrion is the most normal of the three,

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  13. Have you posted your thoughts or a "re-read" on the preview chapter that Martin put out with Theon and Stannis, I think it was unfortunate it was left out of Dance. As they hinted that a whole chunk of story was cut out. What do you think was in the cut part?

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    1. Actually, I talked about it with Sean T. Collins in our podcast No 6
      http://boiledleather.com/post/17548129731/the-boiled-leather-audio-hour-episode-06

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  14. Tyrion would literally be the only ugly Targaryen ever. We figured out Joffrey was a bastard because he was BLONDE. A family known for producing retardedly beautiful progeny, without a single naturally ugly member, suddenly produces a ridiculously bad looking kid (ugly in more ways than just being a dwarf).


    If Tyrion is a Targaryen, its poor planning on GRRM's part.

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    1. While I still don't like the theory, there is another floating around that Duncan the Small might have been a dwarf as well.

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  15. Theon's dick wasn't flayed, his balls were. If the process of making an eununch was similar to the process in The Years of Rice and Salt, then there is a real concern that Theon's urethra would close. Furthermore, I find it hard to believe that Theon survived the operation and ensuing period (all the toxins building up in his body, ect). Remember, the excretory system is essentially about removing toxins from the body, and if that system is plugged up to allow his urethra to heal, he suffers a risk of dying.

    While cutting his balls off (while leaving his penis intact) is pretty much the same thing as cutting off his dick, it means that his urethra is still intact and the healing process proceeds much as it would for any other mutilation requested by the torture victims.

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