My stance on various ASOIAF conspiracy theories, Part 2

Thursday is theory day now.  

This is the second article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right. 

Prepare for part 2. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously.

Was Tywin poisoned by Oberyn Martell? 
The theory is one I came to know only recently by way of Sean's blog, so I summarize for those who equally missed it: the Red Viper did not only poison Gregor, but also Tywin, presumably either at the wedding feast or during the trial. He certainly would have the guts and expertise for it, to be sure, and that way he would get what he wanted the whole time anyway and the attack on Gregor doesn't seem as reckless anymore since the valuable asset is already safe. There is not much to back this up in the text; most mentioned is the strange odor Tywin gives out on the death bier, and how oddly fast he rots. Then there's the rather sudden bowl movement after Tyrion's bolt, and that's basically it. I thought of it as one of the usual crackpot theories at first, but listening to the "A Storm of Swords" audio book (again) currently, I stumbled over the dialogue between Tyrion and Oberyn, where Oberyn lays out his plan to crown Myrcella in Dorne. Tyrion says that his father won't allow it, and Oberyn replies "Lord Tywin may not live forever". The scene gets an entirely new vibe with that theory, one that I actually believe. Oberyn telling Tyrion all this and, especially, alienating the whole court by championing him, makes more sense when you consider that Tywin is a dead man walking already. The plan would have needed, what, two, three weeks to fulfill? They would have been halfway down to Dorne when Tywin bit the dust by then, backed up by an Imp freed of all charges. It seems to be a pattern with Dornish plans that they don't quite work, but that's a different story, and I'm quite convinced that this is how it happened. Tywin was poisoned by Oberyn Martell.

Aurane Waters is a Targaryen or Blackfyre. 
Aurane Waters, the shady guy whom Cersei just happens to give the title of "Master of Ships" and who makes off with some ships at the end of "A Feast for Crows" to an unknown destination, might be a Blackfyre or even Targaryen on a secret mission. Having some brand-new warships would certainly aid the war effort of either Daenerys or Aegon, but I seriously doubt that. Aurane Waters has the looks, yes, but we get a perfectly fine explanation (Velaryon offspring, if I recall correctly) and the whole plot would require one thing in particular: beforehand knowledge that Cersei is raving mad and would entrust the royal fleet to a bastard bases on a small resemblance to Rhaegar. It's one of those typical conspiracy-theories-thing: after the feat, it all makes perfect sense, but the reuqirements for it to happen if you want to plan it are just enormous. It's basically the same problem with most 9/11 theories, for example. If you can't hide planting some bugs in your opponent's hotel room, you might not be able to cover up for a huge scale terrorist attack. Same here: plan to install some guy nobody knows in such a sensible position and see how far you get. In my book, Waters is just sensible enough to see his star falling with Cersei, takes the ships and goes pirate.

Syrio Forel is Jaqhen H'qar. 
No. He isn't. I grant fans of this theory, you have a strong case. Mandon Moore never says he killed Syrio, and nobody asks, and later we have a guy in the black cells that could just have been put there. Seeing the potential in Arya, he runs along, or something. But I don't believe that Syrio is alive and kicking. This is not an argument I make in-world, because of something in the text, but rather one of narrative structure. Syrio seems a very well defined character, one that has a clear arc and purpose, both of which are fulfilled in the final drama of "A Game of Thrones". That he rates so high on the "still alive and kicking"-list of fandom is due to his badassery, because we don't want badasses to die. But in this case, alas, I fear that Syrio's water finally leaked out. I can't see this kingsguard as the guys to be played like that and then making the effort to take the jerk alive. Why would they? He's the "wretched dancing master" who interfered, and  nothing would give Mandon more joy than to gut him, preferably hearing him scream - even in the case of a surrender, and the Syrio we know wouldn't have given up. Plus, it seems like Jaqen has a certain goal, someone high-profile he wanted to kill, that brought him to the black cells, and Syrio had some chances to do that, enjoying freedom of the castle, and we never heard of any high-profile death. I would guess Jaqen already sat in the cell when poor Gared ran off the Wall.