Thursday, October 11, 2012

My stance on various ASOIAF conspiracy theories, Part 2

Thursday is theory day now.  

This is the second article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right. 

Prepare for part 2. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously.

Was Tywin poisoned by Oberyn Martell? 
The theory is one I came to know only recently by way of Sean's blog, so I summarize for those who equally missed it: the Red Viper did not only poison Gregor, but also Tywin, presumably either at the wedding feast or during the trial. He certainly would have the guts and expertise for it, to be sure, and that way he would get what he wanted the whole time anyway and the attack on Gregor doesn't seem as reckless anymore since the valuable asset is already safe. There is not much to back this up in the text; most mentioned is the strange odor Tywin gives out on the death bier, and how oddly fast he rots. Then there's the rather sudden bowl movement after Tyrion's bolt, and that's basically it. I thought of it as one of the usual crackpot theories at first, but listening to the "A Storm of Swords" audio book (again) currently, I stumbled over the dialogue between Tyrion and Oberyn, where Oberyn lays out his plan to crown Myrcella in Dorne. Tyrion says that his father won't allow it, and Oberyn replies "Lord Tywin may not live forever". The scene gets an entirely new vibe with that theory, one that I actually believe. Oberyn telling Tyrion all this and, especially, alienating the whole court by championing him, makes more sense when you consider that Tywin is a dead man walking already. The plan would have needed, what, two, three weeks to fulfill? They would have been halfway down to Dorne when Tywin bit the dust by then, backed up by an Imp freed of all charges. It seems to be a pattern with Dornish plans that they don't quite work, but that's a different story, and I'm quite convinced that this is how it happened. Tywin was poisoned by Oberyn Martell.

Aurane Waters is a Targaryen or Blackfyre. 
Aurane Waters, the shady guy whom Cersei just happens to give the title of "Master of Ships" and who makes off with some ships at the end of "A Feast for Crows" to an unknown destination, might be a Blackfyre or even Targaryen on a secret mission. Having some brand-new warships would certainly aid the war effort of either Daenerys or Aegon, but I seriously doubt that. Aurane Waters has the looks, yes, but we get a perfectly fine explanation (Velaryon offspring, if I recall correctly) and the whole plot would require one thing in particular: beforehand knowledge that Cersei is raving mad and would entrust the royal fleet to a bastard bases on a small resemblance to Rhaegar. It's one of those typical conspiracy-theories-thing: after the feat, it all makes perfect sense, but the reuqirements for it to happen if you want to plan it are just enormous. It's basically the same problem with most 9/11 theories, for example. If you can't hide planting some bugs in your opponent's hotel room, you might not be able to cover up for a huge scale terrorist attack. Same here: plan to install some guy nobody knows in such a sensible position and see how far you get. In my book, Waters is just sensible enough to see his star falling with Cersei, takes the ships and goes pirate.

Syrio Forel is Jaqhen H'qar. 
No. He isn't. I grant fans of this theory, you have a strong case. Mandon Moore never says he killed Syrio, and nobody asks, and later we have a guy in the black cells that could just have been put there. Seeing the potential in Arya, he runs along, or something. But I don't believe that Syrio is alive and kicking. This is not an argument I make in-world, because of something in the text, but rather one of narrative structure. Syrio seems a very well defined character, one that has a clear arc and purpose, both of which are fulfilled in the final drama of "A Game of Thrones". That he rates so high on the "still alive and kicking"-list of fandom is due to his badassery, because we don't want badasses to die. But in this case, alas, I fear that Syrio's water finally leaked out. I can't see this kingsguard as the guys to be played like that and then making the effort to take the jerk alive. Why would they? He's the "wretched dancing master" who interfered, and  nothing would give Mandon more joy than to gut him, preferably hearing him scream - even in the case of a surrender, and the Syrio we know wouldn't have given up. Plus, it seems like Jaqen has a certain goal, someone high-profile he wanted to kill, that brought him to the black cells, and Syrio had some chances to do that, enjoying freedom of the castle, and we never heard of any high-profile death. I would guess Jaqen already sat in the cell when poor Gared ran off the Wall.

14 comments:

  1. Where do you come down on the idea that Aerys fathered Jon Snow? If we go with "The Dragon has Three Heads" as Jon/Tyrion/Dany, which seems kind of obvious. And you go with the idea that Tyrion is Aerys's son. What about Jon? If Lyanna is Jon's mother, then she died in childbirth, on a "bed of blood". Just like Lady Joanna and Lady Rhaella.

    Aerys as Tyrion's father has some solid hints. Lady Genna's anecdote about the time she told Tywin "Tyrion is your true son" and he woudln't speak to her for a year hold some gravitas.

    Rhaegar stealing Lyanna away after Aerys rapes her in order to protect her child because of whatever Prophecy he read. Not any real evidence to support this in the books but I think it's a reasonable motivation. Could it be possible Rhaegar told Jaime he planned to depose Aerys upon his return from the trident because he thought he had secured Aerys third child? Not knowing of Tyrion but thinking it was Viserys, Dany, and Jon?

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    1. I also now realize my brain fart in not counting Rhaegar as one of Aerys children so that idea is a little shaky.

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    2. Aerys fathering Jon Snow? And Rhaegar didn't tell Jaime any more than there will be changes and planning to call a council, I'm sure. He doesn't seem the chatty type.

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    3. I figured Rhaegar meant getting Aerys outta the throne but you are right there is no evidence either way. The only real connecting thread I have is that all three of their mothers died in childbirth.

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    4. I think Tyrion is a Dragon. The biggest hint came in Dance, when he does not contract the Bloody Flux (and neither did Dany) and Targaryans do not get sick.

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    5. Interesting idea. Do we have any hint of Tyrion becoming sick? However, Targaryens aren't immune to plague - Valarr perished in the Great Spring Sickness, after all.

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    6. he also skips the greyscale, while jon connington gots it by picking the little dude from the waters..

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    7. Lots of characters don't get the bloody flux - to my memory, none of Barristan, Hizdahr, Reznak, Skahaz, Missandei, Irri, Jhiqui, Penny, Jorah, Brown Ben Plumm, Galazza Galare, the Tattered Prince, Pretty Meris, Aggo, Jhogo, Rakharo, Groleo, Daario, Quentyn, Drink, Arch, or Strong Belwas contract the bloody flux. In fact, I can't think of any named characters, besides Tyrion's various captors, who *do* get it.

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  2. While not a Serio/Jaqhen conspiracy theorist, I wonder what's your take on how Jaqhen got into the black cells, was he in league with Varys who put him there for a cover story? Or was he legitimately imprisoned for some reason. Not sure how going to the wall would help him if his next job was in Oldtown. But then again I'm not sure what timeline the Faceless are on. I guess he didn't want to leave until he paid back his debt. But do you have any guess on his origin or what he was doing in King's Landing?

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    1. I am convinced he was there legitimately. Being ferried off to the Wall was impossible to plan beforehand, and easier by just travelling there. Plus, Jaqen changes persona only when his hand is forced by Arya. I'd guess he came into contact with some very shady figures in KL, and/or tried to gain access to Pycelle and his chambers. He searchs for a certain key, after all.

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  3. I like The Tywin was poisoned theory. It makes sense, but does not have to be true... What about the idea that Shae might have been the poisoner on behalf of Varys or Obi-wan.... err Oberyn? I like that, because it makes Tyrion's murder of Shae tragic.

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    1. Might be, but Oberyn doesn't seem the type to delegate such work, much like Jaime.

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  4. The biggest problem with Syrio=Jaqen is that the timeline doesn't work at all. Jaqen was released from the Black Cells and given over to Yoren by Ned as Hand of the King. This is explicitly said by Longwaters in Jaime's first chapter in A Feast for Crows:

    "The black cells are little used. Before your lordship's little brother was sent down, we had Grand Maester Pycelle for a time, and before him Lord Stark the traitor. There were three others, common men, but Lord Stark gave them to the Night's Watch."

    Those three others are obviously Jaqen H'ghar, Rorge, and Biter. So our chronology for Jaqen is: Sent to the Black cells, given to Yoren by Lord Stark while he is still hand, after Yoren arrives in King's Landing, depart King's Landing with Yoren after Ned's execution.

    Our chronology for Syrio is: hired by Ned as "dancing master" for his daughter well before Yoren arrives in King's Landing, then presumably killed by Meryn Trant at the same time that Ned is being sent to the Black Cells.

    When Syrio is hired by Ned, Jaqen is presumably already in the Black Cells, and he is released to Yoren's custody at a time when Syrio is still working in Lord Stark's household. The timeline doesn't work at all.

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  5. Thinking about Gared got me to wondering how he made it past the wall to be beheaded by Ned. I wonder if he & the ranging party noticed a 'gap' in the wall when inspecting it, that they intended to point out to the builders on returning before heading further north to the prologue point.

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