Thursday, October 24, 2013

Stefan's Theory Hour, part 48

Thursday is Theory Day!
This is the fourty-eigth article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail ( and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.
Prepare for part 48. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously. 

What will Dany think of Westeros?
This is a very crucial question. I bet she won't be pleased. After all, she's a creature of the Free Cities and their culture, may she deny it as she wants. We know she hates the culture of Slaver's Bay, but it's not exactly like Westeros was a haven of civil and human rights. The serfdom of the populace is not that different from slavery, the lords maim and kill as they please (just look at the "justice" that Randyll Tarly delivers at Maidenpool) and people generally don't treat each other very well. Plus, the place is backwards, reactionary and technologically behind in any respect. I can't imagine that she likes the place. It'll be more a combination of a  Stannesian kind of duty ("It's my country") and the determination that after all these years and trials, it must be worth it. It can't be different. But if she survives the battle against the Others - which I don't regard as a given - she might wish to be Queen of the Free Cities rather than of Westeros.

During Robert's rebellion, when Tywin released his army to sack King's Landing, how did he know that Jaime, as a kingsguard, wouldn't defend Aerys to the death?
Heh, I don't think he ever considered that possibility. Jaime is many things, but dying for a king neither of them likes is not exactly in his DNA. He only needs to stand aside when everyone enters the throneroom, after all. Besides, it's not like we know if Tywin wanted to kill Aerys. It may very well be that his plans were different. Imagine him taking King's Landing (and sacking the city, a move I still don't really understand to be honest), killing Rhaegar's heirs and wife (after he already knows of the prince's demise) and taking Viserys and Danaerys hostage. He couldn't do the latter, since they fled to Dragonstone, but we can't be sure whether he had that information at that point. He could have reinstated himself as hand, with Aerys no more than a puppet king, offered some minor people to Robert (as well as Lyanna) and some other recompense as well if he felt like it. In that case, Jaime would have been master jailor and, more importantly, Aerys would have had the possibility to release Jaime from his vows. I think the more apt question would be how he knew that Jaime wouldn't simply been killed by Aerys. I guess he just didn't care. It's Tywin, after all.

Is Margaery lesbian, bi or at least has tried with girls?
I'm a littlebit astonished by some of the questions here, I have to admit. This seems a question that is more suited for the rampant fanfic-porno-genre that seems to attract women so much in these recent years. For the record, I don't think she is or did either. 

Will be ever know about Thysa and/or Brightroar?
Ah, the big Lannister secrets. No, I think we'll never know where whores or Valyrian swords go. Gerion and his weapon were lost in the Smoldering Sea, and I don't see anyone lifting that particular veil. You need to have some things lost that remain lost, or else you wouldn't ever need to question if some things will be found. Tysha is a bit more difficult. On the one hand, not finding her is the best for Tyrion, who doesn't really attempt to do so anyway. Probably she's dead anyway. On the other hand, if he finds her (or she him), it won't be a nice encounter. I can't imagine she will take his excuse of being lied to seriously. He did rape her, after all. And that fact remains standing. It would be crushing for Tyrion. But he reached his low-point in "A Dance with Dragons" anyway, and I can't see a reason for Martin to pull a Christopher Nolan and drag him back down for the same reasons again to let him stand back a second time, so I predict we will never meet her.


  1. Concerning the question of why Tywin allowed his soldiers to sack King's Landing after taking control of the city, my guess is that he had three motives:

    1) Polish his anti-Targaryen credentials. As he said to Tyrion in ASOS, the Lannnisters needed to prove to Robert that they had turned their backs on the Targaryens forever, and sacking the city that was founded by them is a pretty powerful statement to that effect.

    2) Plunder. If he's getting involved in the war at the eleventh hour, might as well try to turn a profit while he's at it. We all know how much Tywin loves his gold.

    3) Create a cover for the massacre of the royal family. The chaos and tumult of a sack create a situation where it is more believable that Tywin wouldn't have noticed two of his knights conveniently "going rogue" and murdering Elia and her children until it was "too late" to do anything about it except collect the bodies for Robert. Tywin is usually very careful to create plausible deniability for himself whenever he orchestrates an atrocity - think of Gregor and his "bandits" at Mummer's Ford, and Walder "the blood is on his hands" Frey and the Red Wedding.

    It's all very cold blooded, but like you say - it is Tywin, after all.

  2. Yeah, it seems unlikely that we will ever get some closure on Tysha or on Gerion and Brightroar.
    To be honest, the fanboy in me expects Tyrion to journey to the ruins of Valyria to find the remains of Gerion and wield the sword (even though it would be impossible for him since Brightroar is a greatsword), then claim The Rock as his birthright. Then find Tysha back in their cottage (where do whores go? why, they go home) and apologize.

  3. I'm not sure how to ask questions on here, so I apologize in advance for the lightly related subject matter.
    In most podcasts I've listened to, people keep thinking we're entering the endgame of the series. Assuming the endgame doesn't simply mean over the halfway mark, I don't understand this.
    there are still two major phases that need to happen, so, assuming they are both of equal length, doesn't that mean we are nowhere near the end?

    1. Well...its really hard to tell. If you view the first three novels as the beginning, Feast and Dance as the middle, and Winds with Hymn as the end, then yes, we are about to see the resolution of every plot line in the last two books.
      Feast and Dance were all about assembling the end game and letting some of the characters rest, train, and work on their plans since the events of the first three books left the world in chaos and most of the characters spent and tired.
      The problem with only two books left is that there are a sh*t ton of plot lines left to resolve and Martin may not be able to deal with them in two books; he is gonna need to jump from one event to the next rather quickly and get more of his POV's in the same location to reduce individual chapters and just have several characters in the same place at the same time.
      I don't doubt Martin though, I'm sure WoW is gonna be his best ASOIAF yet and am really excited about the battles for Winterfell and Meereen.

    2. the issue with this is that game through storm were mainly about one major event: The War of 5 Kings. The Winds of Winter(should) mainly concern itself with the Dance of The Dragons, which should take about as much time as the War of 5 Kings did to unfold, perhaps a little less. Then Dream of Spring should concern itself mainly with the Invasion of the Others, which again should take just as long, but perhaps a little less than the Dance of the Dragons to unfold.

      Or am I wrong in assuming that The Dance of The Dragons and the Others' Invasion should be about the same in length as the War of 5 Kings, since the only thing I am basing it off of is that they are the original titles of the trilogy, so they were all supposed to be their own books.

    3. One crackpot theory of mine is there may be 2 completely unrelated storylines in the books. The Northern, concerning the invasion of the others and the possible restoration of the Stark dynasty. And the southern concerning the Dance of the Dragons and in relation Danny's invasion. They may meet at some point (sooner or later) and I think they will, but perhaps they continue to be unrelated and that helps GRRM finish quicker.

      Personally I keep alternating between thinking Winds will be out in the Winter of 2014, and thinking that he'll need at least 3 more books to finish and they'll take 3-4 years each, lol.

  4. I have a question concernig the Undying. Why were they showing Dany all the visions and prophesized all the stuff if they were about to attack and consume her?

    1. I mean if they were about to destroy her she wouldn`t be able to ride the three mounts, light three fires, etc... it seems like the contradict themselves... Logic?

    2. Stefan, how long is your list, anyway? :)

  5. Tywin was probably thinking his best bet was to gamble that Jaime would see himself through the chaos. His other options at that point 1.) continuing to stay out of it and 2.) to fight the rebel army Eddard Stark is leading toward King's Landing are both pretty risky, too.