Stefan's Theory Hour, part 45

Thursday is Theory Day! Finally, I did it in time.

This is the fourty-fifth article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.

Prepare for part 45. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously. 

Is Melisandre stupid assuming Stannis is Azor Ahai when Benerro favors Dany?
No, she's making a genuine (although grave) mistake. Not the first, and not the last, by the way. The problem with all these visions is that they are very hard to read. If you don't already know what they mean, you have a very hard time to interpret them. Think about Melisandre's visions of towers that she reads as Eastwatch: we still have no clue which ones she saw. Although, without the knowledge we readers gained from the prologue of "A Dance with Dragons", one can't possibly interpret the "man, wolf, man again" vision. We don't know what her vision regarding Stannis was, but I guess it seemed pretty legit to her. You shouldn't forget that Melisandre is by far the best reader of visions out there. She has no equal in the whole world. So, no, she's not stupid. She has to make incredibly hard decisions on a daily basis, using the crappy intelligence she has to decipher really hard riddles. Also, take into account that Benerro isn't really in on the Azor-Ahai-bandwagon. He favors Dany because she frees slaves, and Benerro obviously wants her to come to Volantis to do exactly that. Melisandre is highly capable, and her readings are correct more often than not (Stannis gained an army at Storm's End, Davos wanted to murder her, Jon Snow was threatened by his brothers, the rangers were killed and their eyes removed, and so on). She is also hindered by the fact that she misreads some visions into possible futures when they are not, strikingly in the case of "Renly" destroying Stannis below the walls of King's Landing. I would guess that she misread Stannis' role in a similar way, seeing him crush the wildlings on the Wall or something and later fighting some dark force, something among these lines. She could only start understanding Jon's appearance in the visions once she met him. Really, when dealing with Melisandre, always remember that she has insufficient intelligence.

What makes Beric special? 

Good question. My take on it: nothing. Nothing at all. He's just a random guy that R'hollor decided should become his vessel. Perhaps it's some kind of inversion of the New Testament: Jesus, the other guy we know capable of returning from the dead and doing crazy stuff, is literally the son of god. Can't get more special than that, really. Beric, on the other hand, is a mostly insignificant noble that would have persished in a pretty insignificant way. He rose to the occasion, displaying some bravery and prowess in battle, but so did countless others. He became who he was by being resurrected, not the other way around ("Are you my mother, Thoros?"). I'd guess his feats are more or less R'hollor showing off. Thoros, the worst priest, and Beric, some random noble, being the miracle guys in Westeros. This is what made Thoros' encounter with Melisandre in the series such a potent scene, methinks, and I hope that it will give her some doubts along the way. 

Why did Benjen join the Night's Watch after Robert's Rebellion?
I'm not sure not that you ask whether we are certain that it was after the rebellion, but I have the feeling you're right on that count. He has to be in the Watch for quite some time in any case, or else he couldn't have been First Ranger (a position requiring at least some merit) nor acquired such a reputation among the wildlings. He must also have been over twenty, since he talks to Jon about forsaking sex in clear terms that suggest that he knew what he was giving up, other than Jon. Anyway, there are basically two theories. One, he's the third son, and there's not much to gain, plus the Starks are friends to the Watch. If you will, it's the boring version. The other theory is a bit more complex, but I like it. It says that Benjen is the "quiet wolf" from the story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree, making him pretty observant. As the theory goes, he would have discovered that Lyanna was the knight and that Rhaegar and she fell in love. Benjen could have helped Lyanna along to flee with Rhaegar (the "abduction"). When all the blood and carnage started, young Benjen must have been consumed by guilt, leading to his joining the Night's Watch. It's a story of great personal tragedy, and also reinforcing the trope that everyone who tells Jon that they "talk when I return" knows his secret and won't return.