Stefan's Theory Hour, part 46

Thursday is Theory Day!

This is the fourty-sixth article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.

Prepare for part 46. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously. 

What would have happened if Jon Arryn succeeded?

We all know that Jon Arryn was poisoned, most likely by his wife on Littlefinger's behest, before he could bring knowledge of the Lannister plot to his king.  But what if he had escaped death, at least long enough to shed light on the thing with Stannis? The result is pretty easy to see, actually. The king would have been furious and immediately ordered the arrest of Jaime and Cersei, and probably the squires and other Lannister personell as well. There would have been a real purge. These arrests most likely would have been succesful, given how badly prepared Cersei is through the whole of "A Game of Thrones". The coup would have been supported by Stannis and Renly (and, accordingly, the Stormlands), most likely the Tyrells (who were already plotting with Renly to marry Margaery to Robert) and certainly the Starks. The Riverlands and the Vale of Arryn would have been in as well, with no chance of Littlefinger hindering it (Jon Arryn went public in this scenario, after all, so even Lysa wouldn't have been able to stop the later Lords Declarant). Dorne and the Iron Islands would most likely have stayed out of it entirely. This means that Tywin Lannister either accepts the outcome and sacrifices Jaime and Cersei to cut his losses, or stages a doomed rebellion. In either case, the Lannisters would have been done as a power factor. Robert would have fathered new heirs on Margaery, Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella might survive and be exiled (or even sent to Casterly Rock, depending on Robert's mood and the prevailing of calmer voices). "A Game of Thrones" would be approximately 100 to 200 pages at the most, with the heroes triumphant and no real story to tell left over.

Will Sansa ever find out that her unintended betrayal her father resulted in his imprisonment and therefore kicked started the war?
How can you even ask that? Of course she will! And woe Littlefinger when she does. Petyr Baelish is already committing a grave mistake in tutoring Sansa anyway, who will certainly gain more and more agency from the knowledge she gathers and depend less and less on Littlefinger, even without that nasty detail. But imagine when she is married to Harry the Heir and unites the swords of the Vale, the North and the Riverlands behind her claim...and then finds out. Goodness, where does Littlefinger think he can run to? Sansa's his blind spot, a huge blind spot. For maximum narrative impact, though, I guess she will find out before she acquires a real powerbase. I'd say it will kick-start her transformation from piece to player, a transformation that has been prepared for five books now. The payoff for this has to be huge. Let her plot the downfall of Littlefinger from within, always fearing to be discovered, and then do him in the moment of his greatest triumph. "I never warned you not to trust me, you know." Perhaps she'll even team up with Dany for this, a plan Littlefinger clearly also has (the carpets he orders from Cersei show the Targaryen arms, remember?).

What do you think is 'the three heads of the dragon?'

The dragon is Azor Ahai, the Prince Who Was Promised. It's a three-headed dragon, which means (besides obviously being house Targaryen's arms) that three people will fulfill the role, which makes sense given that there are three dragons. I wager all of the three heads have Targaryen blood, and all of them are fan-favorite POV characters. Jon, Tyrion and Danaerys are the three heads, and they will unite - if only briefly. I can't imagine the three heads to become best buddies for life and rule the Seven Kingdoms happily ever after. Especially Jon is a wild card in the game, but even Dany currently takes a really dark turn, so while the Three Heads will most likely be decisive in defeating the Others, I'd rather not wager any money on them being beloved heroes after. More likely that they will go down in flame and fire, and be remembered more as a benign natural catastrophe, devestating but preferable to an Other victory.