My stance on various ASOIAF conspiracy theories, Part 18

Thursday is theory day now. 

This is the eighteenth article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.

Prepare for part 18. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously.  

Is there a great Northern conspiracy to make Jon King in the North?

No. There really isn't. You can read a detailled description of this theory on the Westeros forums, so a short summary might suffice: Robb sent his decree of legitimizing Jon north with Maege Mormont on her quest to Greywater Watch, and we never heard of her again. It seems like the letter hasn't fallen into enemy hands, since else they would have used it against Jon ("The Lord Commander plots with the traitors! Kill him!"), so the question remains what happened to the document. The idea is that "the northern lords" ally with Stannis to get rid of the Boltons (because, really, fuck the Boltons) and then proclaim Jon the King in the North. There are some textual arguments of how Manderly's statements and song collection point to this, but I don't really buy it. Jon Snow remains a bastard, even if legitimized. And Martin stressed time and time again just how people didn't like bastards in this world and don't trust them. Jon wasn't involve in the whole war at all. But put that aside and say they really are Stark shippers and take whatever direwolf they can get. The stakes are a bit high, aren't they? The North has bled like hell, and winter is upon them. If they proclaim Jon King in the North (and provided Jon accepts this, which is really not that likely), they're in for another round of war against the Iron Throne. Sure, they can block Moat Cailin after they eliminated the Bolton threat, but still, why should they? Manderly's "official" plot makes much more sense. Kill the Boltons and Freys and present Rickon Stark as LORD Stark to the Iron Throne, hoping for a big "whatever" from the South. The North would again swear fealty to the Iron Throne, continue to reign itself like it has always done, and Manderly would be the de-facto lord of the North until Rickon comes of age. Seems pretty sensible to me, and not at all like this romantic "let's all die for the Stark cause", a cause that bascially died with Robb, and everyone knows it. Except some fans with romantic notions. And, of course, Martin being a romantic himself, you may never exclude the possibility entirely. 

Is Gerold Dayne the real Aegon Targaryen? 

Another weird theory I found at the Westeros forums. I consider it really weird, because it seems so off, but for the sake of the argument, let's do it. The baseline is Doran Martell's quote that there is no man in Dorne as dangerous as Gerold Dayne. Now, the guy is such an esteemed swordsman that he misses an eleven-year-old girl on a horse and flees rather than to face Areo Hotah (although that's a wise course). Clearly, he's not renowned for his prowess with weapons, or else he would have been named Sword in the Morning, right? Darkstar, so the theory goes, is in reality Aegon Targaryen, carefully hidden by Doran, who is such a sick guy that he sacrifices his son in order to keep the appearance. Now, the obvious thing to response is that Gerold's age is totally off. The guy is at least 25, and Aegon can only be 17. That's a hell of a difference. Second, Doran Martell clearly loves his children. He wants revenge for his sister, after all, so sacrificing Quentyn doesn't seem like anything he would do. Totally out of character. Third, there is a totally reasonable explanation for Doran's quote, since Darkstar is dangerous because the madman almost started a war Dorne can't possibly win. I'd call that dangerous, too. We will most likely see him again in "The Winds of Winter", since Areo is a POV and sent after him. But I'd really be surprised if there is anything more to Darkstar than the surface we already witnessed: he's a deviation of the badass stereotype. Basically, he's the Blackfish brought to a logical conclusion. He has a cool nickname, even comes with the appropriate empty but shiny entrance ("I'm of the night") and likes war for war's sake, and everyone else be damned. In short, he's a character you can encounter all the time in inferior fantasy, where he would be either the anti-hero (he would fit perfectly in a David Gemmel novel) or at least a boss enemy. Here, he's just a sad, self-absorbed idiot who almost killed some tenthousand people, and hopefully, Areo Hotah will put an end to him.

Is Lemore Tyene Sands mother, Ashara Dayne or Serra Mopatis?
Lemore's secret identity never really grasped me. If Martin still follows the law of Checkov's gun, there's more to Lemore than meets the eye (although that seems to be pretty much already, if you're into mature porn). There are theories around that are all equally possible and equally unlikely. Let's explore three of the most popular in quick succession. First, she could be Tyene Sands mother, whose identity has been kept a little mystery and provide yet another link between the whole conspiracy of Aegon to Dorne (see the Darkstar idea above). Since Tyene likes to play a septa, like Lemore does, the link seems credible enough. The next theory comes of the camp of the most ardent R+L=J supporters, who still want to keep Ashara Dayne around. In that idea, she didn't commit suicide but instead somehow went to Essos to nurture Aegon. I think this one holds the least water, but it's also very popular. It's the most Hollywood-esque idea, so it's easy to see why. The last option is the most complicated: in this setting, that is often connected to the idea that Aegon isn't real, Lemore is Serra Mopatis, the late wife of Illyrio and mother of "Aegon". This might - and I stress might - make the whole idea of Illyrio prepping his son more credible, but I also don't really buy into it. Regarding Lemore, I don't have strong feelings one way or the other. As of now, we know almost nothing about her. She's more or less a blank slate on which you can project anything, which is why even the craziest theories about her identity work. In the end, it might be a red herring, and she's just a busty septa teaching young Aegon. We'll have to wait and see.