Supreme Court of Westeros, ruling 34

Thursday is court day! 

Welcome to the Supreme Court of Westeros! Every week, three pressing questions from the community will be answered by the esteemed judges Stefan (from your very own Nerdstream Era) and Amin (from A Podcast of Ice and Fire). The rules are simple: we take three questions, and one of us writes a measured analysis. The other one writes a shorter opinion, either concurring or dissenting. The catch is that every week a third judge from the fandom will join us and also write a dissenting or concurring opinion. So if you think you're up to the task - write us an email to stefan_sasse@gmx.de, leave a comment in the post, ask in the APOIAF-forum or contact Amin at his tumblr. Discussion is by no means limited to the court itself, though - feel free to discuss our rulings in the commentary section and ask your own questions through the channels above.

One word on spoilers: we assume that you read all the books, including the Hedge Knight short stories, and watched the current TV episodes. We don't include the spoiler chapters from various sources in the discussion, with the notable exception of Theon I, which was supposed to be in "A Dance with Dragons" anyway.

And now, up to ruling 34 of the Supreme Court of Westeros! Our guest judge this week is Neil Smith. He writes in the APOIAF forum under the nick of Valyrian Neil. He is from Cleveland, Ohio, and one of those fans that read all five books between GOT seasons 1 and 2. He thinks there should be a name for them. 

Will the dragons survive the series?

Main Opinion: Amin

I think that at least one dragon will die by the end of the series, but will any survive? A very difficult question, no way to know for sure at the moment. On the one hand, I believe that George did not originally plan to write about dragons when he started the series, but was convinced by one of his friends and fellow writers to do so. But that has no real bearing on their longevity, as dragons have had and will have a central role in Martin’s saga. One key aspect of the dragons is their relationship to Dany’s legacy: will she be just one final Targaryen to go out in a blaze of glory, or will she leave a lasting legacy that will include her dragons? I believe that George will prefer to leave the door open for the future, rather than have them go extinct again.

Concurring in part, dissenting in part: Stefan

I think we can’t possibly know. Somehow it doesn’t seem to me like the survival of the dragons is really something you’d wish for, and the “bittersweet” ending Martin promised would somehow fit that: they go extinct, which is sad because they’re a really cool and asthetic race, but on the other hand, no one will roam the countryside with flying fire and blood anymore. I guess we have to defer that question until “The Winds of Winter” is out, in the hope of more information on where Dany’s journey and the war with the Others is going, exactly. It might be the Others will go extinct, too, which would be poetic, or that both races fall back into hibernation. Perhaps one dragon’s egg will survive, with no one sharing the knowledge how to breed it?

Dissenting Opinion: Neil

The dragons and their riders will be heros in the showdown with The Others. However, they will not survive the series. Along with the Others, shadow babies, direwolves, and R’hllor powered resurrections, Dani’s dragons will perish in what I believe to be ‘magic’s last stand.’ If Drogon, Visarion, and Rhaegal are directly related to her legacy, couple that with the lessons learned from the Dance of the Dragons, her outlook is bleak as well. Fire and Blood.

Final Verdict: It's likely that at least one dragon will die, but they just might survive as a race. 

What do you think would have happened if Oberyn had survived the fight and Tyrion had travelled down to Dorne instead of fleeing for the Free Cities?

Main Opinion: Amin

I think that it would have been certainly a very interesting situation; another reason why the Red Viper’s death hit the readers so hard, by denying that outcome. Tyrion would be in a better mental and emotional state, not having learned the truth about Tysha, Jaime, Shae, and Tywin, with no patricide to add to the list of his crimes. Though Tyrion himself wasn’t sure if he would be able to go against his family at that point, Tyrion and Doran would have had some great discussions and could potentially accomplish quite a lot together if they did work together. The ripple effects would be enormous as well, as Tyrion was mainly responsible for Aegon moving directly to Westeros rather than going to seek out (and support) Dany.

Concurring Opinion: Stefan

This is one of the events that changes pretty much everything. Tywin doesn’t die, keeping Cersei in check. She will still break, potentially preventing a marriage, but Tywin will keep the effects of her growing insanity from dripping into realm politics. Jaime will probably still go the Riverlands; his journey should be largely unaffected, but there will be no break with his sister. Instead, the rift with his father will be the motivation. The Lannisters will be much more antagonistic to Dorne, a tendency that will bind them more to the Tyrells, who share the sentiment. This leads to a stronger alliance than in OTL. Dorne will become a visible enemy of the realm much sooner, and the situation will become more Cold-War-like, especially since the Martells hold Myrcella hostage. The Iron Bank will not be alienated, not seek out Stannis, not help the Night’s Watch. The greatest effects, however, are in Essos. Aegon will not march west, but the army will instead either wait at Volantis or take the Demon Road to link up with Dany. On the other hand, Dany will not gain back the Second Sons, which might have consequences for the Battle of Fire, for which the Golden Company would never arrive in time. And these are just the most obvious fallouts.

Dissenting Opinion: Neil

If Oberyn wins, Tyrion is free to go. While he may not have learned the truth about Tysha, Jamie, Shae, and Tywin, there is no love lost for Cercei and Tywin. After all, they still constructed a trial that almost led to his death. Jamie is the key here. He doesn’t conspire with Varys to free an already freed man. Do the Martells seek him out or does Tyrion look for Dorne as an ally in order to obtain Casterly Rock? He negotiated Myrcella and Trystane’s betrothal, but he has more facetime with Varys than he does with anyone from Dorne. Upon Tyrion’s release, does Varys seek him out anyway? Is Tyrion a real part of the master plans of Illyrio and Varys? Or just a wildcard that owes them a favor? If Tyrion wants to openly oppose or anger a living Tywin, he goes to Dorne. Tywin would look at Tyrion as another Lannister captive or ally to the Martells. A family that has all the reason in the world to give the battle worn Lannisters a new war to fight. Tensions could quickly escalate and therefore diminish options. If Tyrion wants to play the game from afar and keep people guessing, he goes to Pentos. I feel that is the move he makes.

Final Verdict: A Tyrion operating from Sunspear would have tremendous consequences for the whole story, and that would be where he'd go.

Where is Blackfyre, and will we see it again?

Main Opinion: Amin

From an earlier version of A Dance with Dragons chapter (a 2005 reading of what was then a spoiler chapter), there is some speculation that Illyrio has Blackfyre. This is because Tyrion hears the word “sword” in Valyrian when Illyrio is discussing meeting Aegon. Coupled with Illyrio’s strong support for Aegon, it is quite possible that Illyrio has the sword and has been saving it for Aegon. It may truly be a double edged weapon. One the one side, having a Valyrian sword (and originally from Targaryen ownership) would be useful for Aegon. However, it might not be wise to use anything that was even associated with the Blackfyres given the potential challenges to Aegon’s legitimacy, if the true name of the sword is widely known.

Concurring in part, dissenting in part: Stefan

Why write a whole novella around the damn conflict of you don’t plan on bringing the damn sword back, and the Blackfyre wars as well? I don’t agree that the sword will necesarily tie Aegon to the Blackfyres. It was the ancestral Targaryen sword, after all, and he can just as likely claim that with him, the two lines have reunited again or even that he disposed of the threat once and for all.

Concurring Opinion: Neil

Illyrio has it. Would the small folk of Westeros be so familiar with the Blackfyre Rebellion that Aegon’s possession of it would cause him trouble? Maybe not. After all it was Aegon 1’s first. The sword stayed with the Golden company. Illyrio Mopatis purchased it to falsely legitimize his son as Rhaegar Targaryen’s crown prince.

Final Verdict: Blackfyre will turn up again, most likely in the hands of Aegon.