Stefan's Theory Hour, part 40

Ok, technically it's part 1, but after the pointed question of a commenter I decided to rename the column. Still no internet at home, so they come unregularily for at least another week.

This is the fourtieth article of the series. Since there are a lot of theories floating out there and I'm asked often enough what I think of them, I thought I write it down. You can then laugh about me when I am totally proven wrong by "The Winds of Winter" or something like that. Rules are as follows: you put a question about any theory or plot element (really, let's stress "theory" a bit for the sake of interesting questions) either in the comments of any theory post or by mail (stefan_sasse@gmx.de) and I will answer them in an upcoming post. And if you now ask "Stefan, isn't this a shameless rip-off of Sean T. Collin's "Ask me anything"?", I would tell you to shut up, because you are right.

Prepare for part 40. Spoilers for "A Song of Ice and Fire", obviously. 

What happened to the Mutineers at Craster’s Keep?

Pretty simple, they either died or lied about their involvement, but I guess they are all dead. When the killing started, the Loyalists (like Sam, Grenn and others) fled the scene and made for the Wall, while the mutineers feasted and enjoyed the spoils of their victory. After that, we never hear of them anymore, but can you imagine them living in some kind of alternative hippie commune in Craster’s Keep while the Others are marching on the Wall, with the wildlings before them? They either fought among each other after all supplies were depleted and women raped, or were killed by the wildlings, or by the cold, or by the whights, but one thing they’re not: alive. There’s no conceivable scenario that allows that rag-tag band of misfits to survive the oncoming horror beyond the Wall. One or two might have reached the Wall and told some story that concealed their involvement, but most are dead for sure. 

What is the significance of a kraken returning to the known world?

I think it’s just a sign of magic returning, if there really is a kraken. It might just be a red herring. After all, a multitude of characters has told us over the course of the books that sailors talk about all kind of weird shit, and why should this be any different? So far, we have heard weird stories all over the place, but I’d trust only those we saw through the eyes of a POV, especially Dany for all the shenanigans that are happening in the East and Arya and Brienne for the kind of stuff that happened among the Brotherhood without Banners. Even if there is a giant kraken, one thing it is not: any sign for an impending victory of the Ironborn. While the Greyjoy sigil might be a kraken, I don’t have the feeling that the ascension of one would in any way benefit them. You never heard one of them tell a story about the Ironborn of old controlling such animals, and whenever they talk about the kraken on their banner, they do so purely in metaphorical terms (“what the kraken grasps it doesn’t lose again” and the like). I doubt that monster would make any distinction between the guys having him on their banner and those who don’t, much like a real lion wouldn’t spare a Lannister. 

Who are the second most powerful houses in each region at the start of the series?

The North: Bolton. They have always been the most dangerous vassals of the Starks, prone to rebellion and unrest, and it seems to me that this is not a status that is conferred to them simply because they like to slaughter their smallfolk. Other contenders would be Manderly (who lack the political power, being regarded as foreigners still), Karstark and Umber, but none of them seems to muster the same force as Bolton. The Riverlands: Frey. They easily muster 4.000 soldiers and reinforce that army later after their switch of allegiance, and they have the connections and ambition that go along with it. The Westerlands: No clear contender. Tywin made sure that no one even wants that spot. The Reach: Florent, of course. They are entirely crushed as a house by the end of “A Clash of Kings”, though. The Vale: House Royce. Given how easily they take over after Lysa's death and the reputation they have, that's a given. The Stormlands: There are many smaller houses of more or less equal standing, but I guess Caron could take the spot, being the overlord of the Marshes. The Iron Islands: Harlaw seems to command a nice rooster of vassals, so I’d name them. Dorne: Yronwood, obviously, since Doran Martell goes over such lengths to ensure their allegiance.